Travers Eve

[FrankD.]

Really lame board this meet boys!!!

The Spa is jumping with excitment and hardly any handicapping discussions at all. It\'s been that way meet wise.This used to be a board of patterns, reads and other pertinent discussions about handicapping?

15,000 at the Spa this morning to see AP jog around the track once, signs all over town for watch parties at bars and restaurants. It\'s going to be a really electric day tomorrow, safe trips for all.

Barely 80, no humidity today for the backyard boys, a great day of fun and camaraderie. Uncle Bill, Bobby G. Sean, Belmont 3, Mathcapper and yours truly held down the fort while Rezlegal, Shanahan and Steve Byk stopped by for visits.
Shanny took down the pick 5 and was supposed  to return but he was spotted being dragged down artist row and to the gift shop by his wife after his windfall.
A horrible betting card with some short priced horses in small fields but we got a lil bit lucky.

 I\'ve been working on tomorrows card since Wednesday night and literally spent about 45 minutes on todays card, nothing juicy for me today and literally took $170 total out of my pocket today, got lucky in the 6th race triple that paid a very generous $296 a couple of times and that fueled a caveman pick 4 ticket of
3 X 5 X 3 X 6 and hit the pick 4 losing a photo with the 4 that would have added about $2,400 to the day, Belmont 3 hit it as well with a lesser ticket and the laugh of the day was Steve Byk had bet the exact same ticket as I did!

For Boscar our top pool watcher the 7 horse in the finale was the favorite in the double, pick 3 and pick 4 but was left uncovered in the pick 6 while being bet down to 3/1?

We had some great discussions about the Travers and other stakes for tomorrow and the tips of the day came from Rezlegal. Sheyn Vi Di Levone translates to you look lovely under the moon light and in the paddock the fillies name rolled off Maggie\'s tongue while the talking heads and Larry wanna be Durkin had some trouble annunciating. His other tout was he was getting gas in town and John Shirreffs pulled up next to him and in casual chit chat told him his horse was doing really well.

Was that Miff in the red velvet usher like tuxedo trying to crash the Walk of Fame ceremony today?

Frank D.

[horsegoer]

Nice read......good luck tomorrow. In Lake George now heading down tomorrow.

[Wrongly]

Frank

Enjoy the weekly recaps and jelly I wasn\'t able to make the trip to the Spa this year.

All talk is on AP and the Travers but I\'m looking at the Forego.  I don\'t like Private Zone in this one.  Spotting the Big Beast 6 lbs and Salutos Amigos 4 lbs.  Jacobson\'s other runner earlier in the card may give us a clue as to if this one can run another gaudy number.  Still I\'m sure he will be bet down from his 6/1 morning line.

The Big Beast goes out A. Dutrow who has 5 winners from 14 starters, a 36% win percentage and 93% ITM at Saratoga this season!  Wow!  Tricky must have taught him something.  He also sports good stats with runners making their 2nd of the layoff.  

But I\'m looking a bit deeper for a price and I keep coming back to Wildcat Red.  All kinds of trouble in the King Bishop that Big Beast won last year, hitting the gate, wide on the turn and a tough campaign over all last year.  Ran a stinker; worst race in his career, first out this year but looks like he\'s putting it back together with his last two races.  My gut feeling is the 7 furlong distance is perfect for this horse.  Like Big Beast this one is also getting 6lbs from Private Zone.  Could he pop a new top here?  Morning line of 20/1.  

Someone else might make a case for Falling Sky.  Maybe Jim can chime in and give his opinion.

[Fairmount1]

Not much argument with TG thoughts on tomorrow\'s stakes as I have very similar opinions in several races.  I\'m hoping to be alive to the 3 logical alternates to AP I see in P4, races 8-11.    

I see Sword Dancer as Flintshire\'s race to lose at the low price and will use him as an A in the sequence with the others mentioned as B\'s although considering an upgrade of the overlay mentioned to an A.

Two horses I would also throw in the mix that weren\'t mentioned would be Limousine Liberal and Bourbon Courage.  I am not sure either will win but I will definitely be using them underneath in verticals and will have both included in my horizontals to a certain degree b/c either could surprise at big, big odds although the 7f may get LL and BC might just be good enough in Motion\'s hands 2nd off.  Look at how Race Day improved after leaving Gorder barn....

[jp702006]

Along with the seminar horses, I\'m using both Tamarkuz and Viva Majorca. I think their odds may be even better than their morning lines. In the Kings Bishop I\'m taking a shot with Classy Class. If the pace gets hot he could pick up the pieces and K Mac has been hot.

[johnnym]

In the Sword Dancer I\'m liking Messi for a bit of a price.
Coming in light,Johnny V on board,doubt he bounces based on comments.

Good Luck tomorrow wish I was there

[Tavasco]

Thought I\'d share my speculation assertions and thoughts on a special day of thoroughbred racing.  While most prefer to make their own choices FWIW here are mine. All derogatory and complimentary comments are without data and simply reflect my perceptions.

#1
This race stands out as one where none of the runners will want to be on the lead considering the #2 is MTO. I expect Calumet Farm\'s Grey Wizard to take over on the last turn and hold off  #1 Belisarius who will run 2nd or 3rd. Geez if Belisarius couldn\'t win any of his prior nine races even Mott can\'t help this devoted also ran! Certainly not @ Sar on Travers day. Just might get the 7/2 ml.

#2
#9 Ready Dancer (TAP) disadvantaged by outside post and can\'t finish a race anyway. Although I think #3 Fashionable Freddy is alive the best I can hope for with a Zito firstr is probably 2nd likely 3rd or 4th leaving #2, #5 & #6 to duke it out for the win and exacta.

#3
I rarely like a front runner to win in a turf race  because as most realize the race is in the last furlong or two. However in this batch of can\'t get there\'s #2 Susie\'s Cowgirl is the key, discounted @ 15/1 and left alone may lull the lemmings to sleep and be uncatchable late. Pletchers Irish import Tang Time is a square price  (5/1) if Javy can get her out of the gate this time. The favorites are beatable and usable.

#4
Now this race is a mystery to me?  #3 Doolittle Raiders (Zito) & #10 Tale of S\'avall (Tagg) both appear ready off their workouts but neither trainer tries too hard to win early. So I\'ll put them under Wild Man who hinted his ability on 7/13 @ CD w/o and has been treading water since. #4 Grand Nenuco a $300K Kee Purchase has been working Arabian times even though the trainer is 20% 1st out and West Point\'s $580K OBS purchase is unlikely meant to sprint.

#5
Hard to get excited about any cracking a #1, #2, #3 exacta combination of some sort. I do like #8 Dave Hoeght\'s late run but can\'t see him getting up for better than 3rd or 4th.

This brings the preliminary sequence to an end and begins the Graded Stakes which don\'t reward speculation all that much. The fact that these races are filled with horses of known ability rather than the preceding races proven inabilities or mysterious abilities results in chalky results in general. If I\'m not up by now it will be difficult to get out.

#6
Can the #1 America or #3 Tiz Windy get into the exacta or Trifecta nope - El Paso

#7
#4 Room For Me (DJ) has that ped look when just didn\'t decel much in last off reasonable fractions and @ 6/1 probably a sucker play stepping into G1 company. But cheaters as a group have no fear or shame anymore

#8
#2 Grand Bili this one recently beat Barbados who is no slouch. The last Florida Sprinter who caught my attention coming north was the 10/1 two year old a month or so back whom FrankD pointed out and keyed a nice $65 ex. His figure also has no ground loss. One of Richiebee\'s favorite trainers Ben Colebrook brings his unbeaten colt in from Elp and is 30/1 Holy Boss also beat Barbados and has proven tough to beat but he is not quickest here and just as Daredevil ran him off his feet in last years Champagne expect the same this year.

#9
Come-on #10 Salutos Amigos 7F @ 6/1 with Private Zone to guarantee a pace. Get out of jail free!

#10
Chalk #2 Flintshire or # 5 Twilight Eclipse or both.

#11
Couple the controlling speed AP with the dedicated closer and improving Texas Red and a gimme exacta albeit most will expect it.

#12
#10 New Providence WPS