Gotham Pick 4

[FrankD.]

Mike,

We absolutely agree in theory and I\'m not suggesting Shagaf earned a fast figure. My point is made in your last sentence \" A good day to remember because the data will not reflect the huge edge to speed and inside path\". You can\'t use projections and have one big new top and the rest of the field running X\'s, we both know that. I\'m sure it\'s a day to pull out your figure makers poetic license!

I got my PHD in trips and bias\'s at the Sportsman Park bull ring in the early and mid 80\'s. Many a score was made by a few scribbled notes on the form in the days when we all had stacks of them from floor to ceiling in our offices!

My eyes tell me that Shagaf got more out of his race yesterday to move forward than Mohaymen did swooping a 6 horse field last week in Florida. Sunny Ridge\'s line from yesterday will look horrible, was it really?  How about Doctor Dempsey in the 8th trying to get to the lead from the 9 hole and stopping cold? There are another half a dozen roses in yesterday\'s thorn bush.

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Not in disagreement re Shagaf yesterday getting schooled. After eons in the game,for me, it\'s still mainly about fast or slow and Shagaf seems common at this juncture relative to others.Not saying he does not have upside but he needs to hurry up in his next race.

Neutral on Mohaymen but he\'s far advanced to most contenders right now.Fla derby with Nyquiat coming is the most interesting prep for me right now.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Florida Derby interesting for sure, Nyquist will have the screws a bit tighter than Moyheyman I\'m sure shipping for the million bucks. Battle of the ego\'s, how important will it be to go to Louisville undefeated?

Chad yet to prove himself in 3 yr old classics but Shagaf\'s maiden breaking 3 is a mere step behind the top ones numbers to date. Bernardini\'s normal improvement from 2 to 3 is 3 points. Absolutely not out of the question of a TG 0 winning this years Derby. If he even pairs yesterday and gets back to his 2 yr old top in the Wood? That is an awfully nice pattern heading into the first Saturday in May.

No argument being all about slow or fast but what we really need to know is when will they run their fastest?

[ajkreider]

For my money, Adventist is one to watch going forward, was wider than Shagaf on the turns, but held place well relative to that one through the stretch.  Still a bit green, but think he is as likely to improve - and will be a lot longer odds.

Sunny also gets a do over, spotting the field that much weight on that surface.

[miff]

Sunny may get best number and arguably did the most running.Sunny had race dynamics against him, last 5/16ths in 34.21 beyond very slow though.

[Wrongly]

Frank

Took the words out of my mouth.  Will be watching a couple of others in their next start: Mo Tom and Whitmore.  If both progress might be pattern plays come Derby Day.  I really like the way this derby is shaping up, a bit like this year\'s NCAA tourney.  The ones on top are not that far in front and could easily come back to many in the pack.

By the way props on hitting the PK4.  T.

[atakante]

FWIW, I checked the Equibase figs and it seems they rated Shagaf at 110.  This is the 2nd best figure of any 3 yo in the KD running 2nd only behind Mohaymen\'s FOY (115).  What gives?

Also, I am assuming the cold NY climate may have sth. to do with the terrible track bias.  If so, it is reason alone for me to stay away from betting on any Northern track in the winter sitting in my California living room.

[miff]

\"FWIW, I checked the Equibase figs and it seems they rated Shagaf at 110. This is the 2nd best figure of any 3 yo in the KD running 2nd only behind Mohaymen\'s FOY (115). What gives?\"


......absurd,not even close!

[ajkreider]

It will be interesting to see what Equibase and Beyer (which I also think was too high for Shagaf) give Matt King Coal - who went a full second quicker today.  Different day, I know, but while less rail biased, the track still seemed pretty slow.

[miff]

Matt King Cole 90 Beyer.......

....update fig adjusted to Beyer 97....can\'t see it but Aqu played horribly slow on Sat and Sun