Melotonin Post-mortem

[atakante]

I was just curious to see if anyone had a chance to really digest how he got to steal the show last weekend with a 16-1 line?  We\'re talking about a horse that never ran that distance.  Set crazy fast fractions against an Ok field and somehow did not tire down on the stretch run.  Was he lucky Donworth could not find any space?  Did his lead gift him the race?  Track bias?  Chemical magic? Effinex hives?  Sire stats?  Oh my...

[jp702006]

You may also be overlooking a couple of points. First, he had been sprinting most of his career. He tries two turns and wins easily earning a new career top in the process. It\'s possible this is what the horse really wanted to be doing all along. Secondly, and most important in my opinion, he was getting serious weight from the top contenders.

[miff]

.....and




MELATONIN   Mar 9   SA   5   1:00.3H   M   FT        B+          
Easy reach for this rapidly improving sort, last 3f in 36.0, Going very well; Talamo up.---Grade: B+

MELATONIN   Feb 29   SA   7   1:25.2H   M   FT        B+          
Talamo up; ran far clear from barnmate Infatuated, finishing with power to the 7f pole in 50.0, 114.4, 126.0. This one is clearly is going well.---Grade: B+

[ringato3]

Not sure why he won, although working well and getting weight don\'t hurt.  (IMO, workout reports on mature Grade 1/2 horses mostly useless, but if the solid reports helped people find this guy, god bless.

But I will comment on Donworth.  one of the posters, Joe B, posted last week that General A-Rod was one of the worst money burners of recent memory.  I guess it depends on your perspective, but don\'t see A-Rod as a money burner, as he is seldom favored (although was often touted on this board, I think JCovello and TGJG were big fans...).  But Donworth is one that I see as a constant money burner.  overhyped since the maiden win and never wins.  Sure, he had no room on Saturday, but wasn\'t exactly running late when he got clear.  Anybody that thinks he was gonna win with clear sailing, please reach out to me, I have a bridge for sale.  

Hindsight always 20/20, but it was a good race to take a shot.  Effinex a nice horse, but even money with a ship out west for his first start of the year was short.  Donworth being 2-1 was silly/stupid.  Frankly, I couldn\'t come up with Melatonin, trying Hard Aces as a key for a few dollars and despite running 2nd, didn\'t cash a ticket.  (maybe i should have bought that workout report.,...)

Rob

[Tavasco]

I\'m pleased this thread was started. The  winner was indeed curious. My first thought after the race, while staring at his sheet, was no way to pick this horse as a win contender from the info I see.

The second thought thru my mind, only 16/1, hmm seems too short.

1. If memory serves, Melotonin ran a TG 3 as 2 y/o. That is very strong and indicates special ability.

2. I erroneously pigeon holed Kodiac Kowboy (the sire?) as a sprinter consequently discounting the chances of his progeny @ 1+1/4 miles.

Horses moving east (cold) to west (warm) hold no interest for me especially as the short priced favorite 1st out after a long rest. But this race story much more than Effinex failing to win.

While the weight JP mentions is part of the answer its just doesn\'t seem enough. Now I\'m doubting Danzig Candy, supposing track characteristics very different than Churchill Downs.

Puzzles me! Hard to believe winner jumped up and so many others jumped down? Yet pace has skewed the results of more than a few races IMO.

[Niall]

Was Jeff Seigels selection. This year\'s edition of the Santa Anita Handicap, a classic for older horses at a mile and one-quarter on the main track, looks like anybody\'s race on paper so why not go for a long shot?  #2 Melatonin is thoroughly unproven at this distance and at this level, so his 20-1 morning line makes sense.  However, he was visually highly impressive winning a conditioned allowance race in his first try around two turns and earned a giant speed figure in doing so.  He\'s worked very well in the interim for trainer David Hofmans and very likely will find himself in an ideal pace prompting situation in a race without much pace.  Let\'s go for the knockout.

[jbelfior]

Rob:
I was in a similar camp. I tossed horses for similar reasons in that race. Donworth has physical issues and these normally fire their best off the layoff (at a nice number) then come up empty at much shorter odds next time out and inevitably out comes the list of excuses.

Did not like Effinex off a layoff going 1 1/4 and spotting weight first time over the track. The race smelled of a bomb and that\'s the direction I went in. Unfortunately put way too much emphasis on how well Cyrus was working off of his San Antonio effort.  

Ah,the power of early speed.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TempletonPeck]

I did my own little post-mortem after the race, because they only good thing about that race for me the first time was that I saw it live, and a day in the sun at the races is pretty good even when you lose.

So, having had the benefit of seeing it and then handicapping it, here\'s how (I think) you could get to Melotonin: watch the replay of his last out first route in which he appeared ready to run (maybe \'much\') further, and bear in mind that although he\'s never been leading at nearly any call of any of his races, they were largely sprints, and this field had zero pace, so there was at least some chance he could just accidentally inherit the lead (although he didn\'t in the previous route). Then, refuse to take the short odds on Effinex (east-west ship, first off layoff, and add that last year he danced a lot of dances and real big numbers, so he could just have still been tired/bouncey), or Donworth (career money-burner, sometimes unsound), as stated by others.

With all that being said, wanted to point out two other things: many others were getting serious weight from Effinex, and the trouble that Donworth got into should not be underestimated (he looked to clip heels on the turn and take a decent stumble, after having Gutierrez apply a rear naked choke for a meaningful portion of the race).

[Michael D.]

give him the same weight and ground loss as Effinex/Imperative and he finishes in about 2:04.