Off the top of my head

[mjellish]

I would say this year\'s dance in Louisville is going to be an excellent betting race.  Nyquist the likely favorite and he was bearing out badly the last 1/16th today.  Mohaymen will still be over bet and he hasn\'t run fast yet, etc.  kY Derby seems like a wide open race to me.

[jp702006]

Yes, Nyquist bore out. He also quickly recovered and began pulling away again. Could be expected considering he was coming off of a 7 furlong prep and had never been this far before. He looks like the real deal.

Patrick

[pizzalove]

in your opinion didn\'t it look like he blew the turn a little as well?  Or am I just wrong.

[FrankD.]

Pizza,

I think that was more of Mario riding 2 horses a la Angel Cordero floating Mo out a bit.

Either way per TGJB Nyquist being lucky to even pair his last is going nowhere. He had everything his way yesterday and even a pair doesn\'t break him through his 2 yr old top with a habit of bearing out and even one BI on his sheet.He will be a 7/2 maybe a point lower favorite having to deal with Danzig Candy and Laoban on the front end of 10 furlongs.

As mjellish says above it\'s a wide open betting race especially with Mohaymen still being a 3rd or 4th choice.

[miff]

Nyquist received a 94 Beyer and a TF 116 which, after adjustment, come smack on TG 1.75 pairing his last on both. JB has Nyquist a little slower.

Question is what to do with Mohaymen, jock Alvarado said MO had no pull/grab yesterday but always had in previous races.A mulligan for wet track or toss,breeding for wet track is good.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Tough day for figure makers! The only other 2 turn dirt races were 4 hours before on a sealed sloppy track, opened up but another quick shower hits after it was opened? FL Derby has to stand alone and WTF do you do when MO doesn\'t run and the others are garbage (said politely) Majesto has 40 Derby points with what a 5 maybe after yesterday as a top?

I know it can rain out of no where at anytime in South Florida but yesterday makes me turn in my meteoroligist card. OMG

[miff]

Frank,

Agree, projection voodoo in play.For example, Valid outran Nyquist by app 8 Beyer points on the clock but only received a 96 vs Nyq 94, does not reconcile unless they had track changing speed.TF had Valid and Nyquist dead even after pace adjusting.With two former snails trailing Nyq, JB is sure to punish the fig.

The art/creative license part of fig making will be on display for sure, caveat emptor.

Mike

[jbelfior]

Wondering how it feels this morning to have a Mohaymen and Kiaren 7/2 odds ticket in your pocket. Yikes!!!!!

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Silver Charm]

Frank don\'t beat yourself up. There were 2 cells the size of a peanut on the Doppler and both of those went right over GP. One at noon and the other one later in the day when it appeared to be drying out. There was not a drop of rain within a 40 mile radius on the Radar. Just bad luck!!

I\'m curious on Mohaymen because he got beat by horses he had trounced previously. There was an Old School Sheet Theory about 3 Year Olds in the Spring who run 2 good figures then X then come back to run the race of their lives.

Jerry Brown made a name for himself when used to this angle to publicly, in print, tell any listeners to go \"ALL IN\" on Thunder Gulch in the Derby who paid $48 to win. Many felt Thunder Gulch who had finished flatly in the Blue Grass was done. I am curious about this angle now because the spacing is so different. If the track was considered tiring and it got to the horse then that\'s on KM who has babied the horse all spring. If KM went light afraid both horses might pull an Upstart and Materiality from last year then that\'s interesting. If you think I am looking for excuses here I am. Because this horse now is going to be between 10-1 or 12-1 come Derby Day. And he does have talent and a good temperament....

[mjellish]

Patrick,

I would agree that Nyquist is a nice colt.  Have to admire his guts.  So far he\'s managed to overcome anything he\'s had to in order to win.  He had a lot of excuses not to win the BC Juvenile IMO but he overcame a LOT of adversity and got home.  Really impressed, and surprised me that day.  Yesterday he handled a long, tough ship across the country, a wet track, he set an honest pace dueling between 2 horses, ran them into the ground and still had enough to hold off the late runners and finished his last furlong in 12 and change.  

All that being said, I would be inclined at this point to be skeptical of his chances to win the KY Derby.  Sure he had excuses for bearing out and swapping leads yesterday in deep stretch.  But nonetheless he\'s lucky there was no one else coming or it would have probably cost him the race.  All he beat, IMO, was Mohaymen and that one, while undefeated, has yet to run very fast in any of his races and didn\'t run well yesterday.  

I\'m not saying Nyquist is a toss for the KY Derby.  I\'m only saying if the race were tomorrow I would have no problem playing against him if I found someone else I liked as much or more at a much bigger price.  At this point I don\'t regard Nyquist as tough to play against as I did, for example, Point Given (who didn\'t win) or Big Brown (who did).

[jp702006]

I agree with you. I will be looking for that 15-1 shot in the Derby to use as my key. However, Nyquist will still be on my horizontal and vertical wagers. If anybody can get this horse ready for 1 1/4, it\'s Doug O\'Neal. I\'m definitely looking forward to see how the SA Derby shakes out next weekend.

Patrick

[johnnym]

Nyquist impressed me very much yesterday.
I still say his BCJ race was the most impressive so far.
I believe a undefeated Barbaro was 2nd choice at 6-1
As Rodney use to say.
\" I\'ll tell ya, I get no respect, no respect at all\"

[jp702006]

You are right about the BCJ race. Not many horses could have overcome that trip, let alone a 2yr old. I think he gets first run coming out of the turn in the Derby. Whether or not he can hold off the closers is the million dollar question:)

Patrick

[johnnym]

With the I\'ll have Another Derby, I had a gut that Bodiemiester was going to get caught just didn\'t have a strong feeling by whom.
Played a Ex with him in place and 10 horses on top, it payed of..
Maybe same scenario this year?
Some speed horses out west let\'s see what happens out there Saturday.
Either way running in the slop yesterday gong a 1 1/8  I would have to think is good for getting a horse fit.
Let\'s not forget O Niell trains his horses long..
As of now Nyquist would be hard to keep of my tix..
Good Luck