Mathcapper Expertise request

[belmont3]

Parlay Payout scenario:
 
Race 1) 3rd choice         $9.00
Race 2) 8th choice (of 10) $39.20
Race 3) 3rd choice         $10.40
Race 4) 2nd choice         $7.80    

I come up with $3577 for a $2 pik 4 or $1788 for the $1 version and $894 for the Filene\'s basement $.50

Pik 3:

$795 for $2
$398 for $1  
$199 for $.50

If those straight parlay numbers are close, adding your love potion #9 to the equation, what would you call fair value on these scenarios?

Thanks

Bob

[Mathcapper]

Bob -- yep, those straight parlay numbers are right on.

As far as the expected payout based on those win odds, it will vary slightly from track to track depending on the takeout. Assuming we’re talking the NYRA circuit, where WPS takeout is 16% and Pk3 & Pk4 takeout is 24%, the expected payouts would be:

Pick 3: 0.76/(.84)^3 = 1.282 x win parlay

So for $1 Pk3, the expected payout is $398 x 1.282 = $510

Pick 4: .76/(.84)^4 = 1.5265 x win parlay

So for $.50 bargain basement Pk4, the expected payout is $894 x 1.5265 = $1,365


Rocky

[FrankD.]

Sounds like Belmont Bobby finally cashed a ticket!!!!!

[Mathcapper]

If he did, I\'m guessing he\'s not as happy about it as he might otherwise have been, and that I confirmed his suspicions.

At the track in question, both numbers came in pretty light, likely due to the fact that the winners of the first two legs went off at substantially higher odds than their ML\'s. My guess is both those horses were bet heavier in the multis than they were on the tote.

[Tavasco]

On a light note, it is Arkansas and by using the number of Asmussen winners as a divisor? we can get close to the actual P4 payoffs.

[belmont3]

Frank,

Funny Funny

Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory

The sequence had a chance to be the \"Score of the Month\" and I managed to turn it into a very minor cash that should cover my TG outlay for the weekend.