Holy Crap.

[TGJB]

Just got my first look at Ragozin\'s (Jake\'s) Derby sheets.

Everything else aside-- and that covers an amazing amount of stuff that\'s, well, amazing-- they have Trojan Nation bouncing in the Wood.

[jp702006]

That\'s pretty funny. Does that mean they had him as playable going in?

[TGJB]

I\'m trying to get my mind around what I\'m looking at, as a figure maker.

Tom\'s Ready\'s last significantly better than Outwork\'s Wood, Lanni\'s same as Outwork. I can\'t figure out what the hell they were thinking with the Wood, looking at the Derby horses out of it, it doesn\'t make any sense just on THEIR stuff. Clearly they should be taking off 2 or 3.

[miff]

They tied the Wood to the filly race same distance, raw times very close.

[TGJB]

First of all, I didn\'t do those two races that different, so they must have had the filly race collapsing as well. But aside from that, and aside from one look should have told them what to do EVEN if the track was fast, it went fast/good/muddy, so presumably even those guys could figure out it rained. Tying anything to anything an hour earlier under those circumstances would be silly.

I suspect it\'s based on making a ton of silly assumptions, among them about the one/two turn relationship.

[TGJB]

Still in shock. They have Exxagerator\'s sprint loss to Nyquist significantly FASTER than his SA Derby win. Imagine how much he would have won by if he ran his best.

Re the Wood, I\'ve seen the first three and Shagaf, they have all four going backward. In a GI. For 3yos.

Get a grip. People pay for this stuff.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still in shock. They have Exxagerator\'s sprint
> loss to Nyquist significantly FASTER than his SA
> Derby win. Imagine how much he would have won by
> if he ran his best.
>
> Re the Wood, I\'ve seen the first three and Shagaf,
> they have all four going backward. In a GI. For
> 3yos.
>
> Get a grip. People pay for this stuff.




Yup.  And those fools will defend it to their last breath. I mean, they are a bit more sophisticated than you are JB. Those 1/4 point conditioning moves are legendary.

Guessing Wednesday night for the seminar?  Is the stakes seminar looking like a go??

[TGJB]

If all goes well and Starbucks doesn\'t run out of coffee the Oaks/Derby seminar will be up some time Wednesday night, and the other Thursday night. CD racing office was nice enough to send probables while I was typing this, so it looks good.

[jerry]

They have the Wood much slower than you do. Did you break the Wood out from the other races?

[TGJB]

There was a) track going fast/good/muddy, b) a sprint/route split. There were two other two turn races, I took off about a point more than one and another point more than the other. But this was a no brainer, the whole range of possibilities was what I did or one point slower, and this was clearly better.

As I said earlier in the string, forget what I did, what they did is clearly wrong if you use THEIR data to make figures. It\'s clear they should be taking off 2 to 3-- I can\'t tell which without seeing the ones that are not in the Derby probables. I would love to hear them publicly explain the basis for what they did, but they won\'t. It has to be built on some really silly assumptions that in the end come down to the misuse of averages.

[jerry]

Do they ever break races out or do they just go with one variant?

[TGJB]

See if you can get them to answer that question.

Ragozin trusted his own judgment, but not theirs. He set up rules, but not for himself.

[jerry]

Ah. An artist.