Oaks / Carina Mia Day

[FrankD.]

Carina Mia would have been a major player for me in the Oaks, certainly not a single but probably 60% of my horizontal investment. Her strategic landing spot on the wagering menu today will result in a very good day or dig a deep hole for sure? She is the final piece of a pick 4 and batting lead off in the pick 5 and depending on how the sequences are looking she may be involved in 3 pick 3\'s as well a pick 6 play. All the eggs in one basket!!!

Pick 5:

Race 7: 8 Belle\'s
 I\'ll let you guess who I\'m singling.

Race 8: Turf Sprint
 5/1 ML on Power Alert makes me wonder if my very distant cousin Mike Battaglia was drinking with me pre Cinco de Mayo. Richiebee alerted me to Alsvid as his special of the day early in the week. Something Extra & Guns Loaded.
No great surprises strictly by the numbers. 1,6,11,12

Race 9: Alysheba
Noble Bird is most definitely the horse for the course and a very competitive race should keep his price square.Departing is the price play, although he has had trouble finding the winners circle of late his last interests me. Pair up, move forward or a Miff phony wide figure in his last? The price justifies a look.
Eagle, Majestic Affair & Cat Burglar will get all play here as well.
1,3,4,5,6 with Noble Bird getting a few extra punches.

Race 10: Edgewood
Catch a Glimpse is fastest but not by much and a beautiful pattern but draws outside and spots a point in weight to 2 BOMBS that I love in this spot. so See Ya!!! Nodiac has a couple nice numbers on the right side of the sheet and we all love pairs on developing 3 yr olds but I really like trebles Breakout day for this one at 15/1 ML, Pratt & D\'Amato work well together.  Enjoy Yourself is 30/1 and ran a really nice race against Ava last fall where she had no place to go and has moved forward. I\'m not a thoro pattern guy as I feel its far to random a sample but 63% to pair or top at 30/1 will get you on some tickets.
Harmonize and Ava\'s Kitten will get token savers play.
1,3,5,8 with Nodiac getting a bit more.

Race 11: The Oaks
The draw, the draw, the draw. My first instincts here were to toss little Rachel and Sophia as they drew very tough spots. Rachel had a gut wrencher off the bench doing the dirty work up front  on a closers track. I don\'t see her winning here but sentiment for her Mommy and the BC race against Songbird make me include her as a saver. Sophia wants NO part of two turns and I know it, however I must invoke the Covello rule of never letting the fastest horse in a race beat you in a horizontal sequence. Mo D\'Amour is coming in off trips be they slow but has worked impressively and  Pletcher horses never ever make big jump ups! The price makes her a must use for me in verticals and gets 50 cents worth of a gorilla pick 5 ticket. Maggie and Lewis are the 2 that I like with a preference to Lewis.
One of the things about living where I do is the constant access to the chirping Brownies, they are everywhere and if you listen they will surely break you. One of the Chadster\'s who seems to flag me down everytime he sees me and I have no idea even what his name is got me yesterday!!! They like Lewis A LOT.
3,4,7,11,12 with Lewis getting the most attention.

1 X 4 X 5 X 4 X 5 = $200 if you\'re going Gorilla, is that like turning Japanese?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[richiebee]

Agree with Frank about Carina, but also think that Catch A Glimpse is worth singling even though she is what is what I would sometimes call a classic T-
Generate toss out: wide, weight, short price, but...

Race 7: CM adds Lasix. She ran off the screen last time she sprinted. The 58⁴ breeze April 25 is oh so fast for a Mott trainee. Single.

Race 8: One year anniversary of a nice score when Power Alert took this race at 5/1 for Jimmy C., going straight to the front and holding off Undrafted. Must use off numbers even though he showed nothing early or late in his last. Others with number power on the ticket: Something Extra and Guns Loaded, though it is hard to tell how the latter, an in form hillside loving Californian will do at 5 furlongs. Summation Time is slower, but Clement is going well now. Hootenanny also slower but Wesley Ward is tough to throw off a spread ticket. Rocket Heat is slower but has done well at 5 furlongs in the past.

As Frank said, I think Alsvid, a 7 year old who has earned over a million dollars racing on dirt, gets a look. In his most recent turf try, last September on this course, he put up a TG# which makes him among the faster horses in this race. With only 2 lifetime turf tries and no lifetime turf wins, a bit of a contrarian stab here.

Race 9: Basically going in the same direction as Frank here but will not use Departing, who won seven of his first 12 lifetime races, but has been one for his last 12. The good news for Frank is that Robbie Albarado beats me in a big spot at least once a year. The puzzling one here is Cat Burglar, who has been good recently but has not done his best TG wise in two CD starts.

Race 10: I\'ll single Catch A Glimpse even though she is, to me, a classic TG toss out: favored, weighted, wide. The positives are she has handled good, yielding and firm turf courses. She has handled outside posts. Now I will run the risk of Thoro-banishment by mentioning workouts twice in the same thread: CAG\'s April 29 breeze on Keeneland\'s main track was very sharp.

Race 11 Oaks: The inside four fillies, while not as hyped as RV and CS to the outside, have won 12 of 16 races among them. Hoping the saved ground is the difference.

5/1,2,4,6,7,11,12/1,4,5,6,9/10/1,2,3,4,8,12 x .50 = $105.

Frank\'s a gorilla. I\'m just a fleabit peanut monkey.

[SoCalMan2]

> 1 X 4 X 5 X 4 X 5 = $200 if you\'re going Gorilla,
> is that like turning Japanese?
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.

I really think so!

Like your bet a lot....I might peel a few off in the Alysheba and add more in the Edgewood.  In the Alysheba, it seems to me that Cat Burglar never has gotten a top as good as some of these and that Departing never didn\'t bounce, so I would pull those guys out.  In the Edgewood, this is something I am expert in -- nothing hurts more than being right about tossing chalk, but not getting the right upsetter -- there are more long horses with chances in here than you give credit to  in your bet.  I would structure my ticket -- accordingly 1 X 4 X 3 X 7 X 5 0r $210.....a little more Gorilla/Japanese.

[SoCalMan2]

>
> Frank\'s a gorilla. I\'m just a fleabit peanut
> monkey.


That\'s not really true

[firmturf]

I love the \"chirping Brownies\" comment.

[P-Dub]

Agree Frank. Lewis Bay my key, and also using the 1

[magicnight]

Nice going, Richie!

[sekrah]

Irad is going to need a ice bath after that ride.  Tough break for anyone who had Lewis Bay.  Suddenly this horse forgot how to relax.  Maybe the crowd.

[P-Dub]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice going, Richie!

Well done, $1941

[johnnym]

Nice Richee
Tomorrow Gorilla part duex

[FrankD.]

Nice POP peanut monkey!!!!

Gorilla\'s got killed today and just tried to get out on Morning Buzz in the 13th.

[Tavasco]

Hooray Richie!

Excellent analysis, entertaining write-up, and that was before the races. Terrific good luck during. Good for you. Well done!

Play the rush?

[HP]

This is some epic handicapping richiebee.  Love to see this on the board, what it\'s all about.  

I\'ll throw this one out for tomorrow, I love Holy Boss.  Good luck to all.

HP

[richiebee]

Thanks to all for the kind words.

This is a great game when things break right, with the key being to keep one\'s
composure the other 95% of the time.