Suddenbreakingnews

[Agastache]

I recall on this board after Derby some chatter about Suddenbreakingnews being in a different path than what TG had originally stated on the far turn. I cannot tell from the pan view and I have not been able to find a head on yet.  Perhaps, it was an NBC overhead view that pointed this out.

Has this been reviewed?

The reason I ask is that it SBN appears to staring at a potential 0-2-X pattern, possibly?  From all accounts, the horse has been working well at Churchill, though. He comes from so far out of it, that I can hardly consider him a win contender, but one that could pick up pieces late and nab 3/4 slots in gimmicks.

[jimbo66]

Agastache,

I am sure the TG folks will answer your question about the figure, but you do realize that Suddenbreakingnews is the second choice in the betting?  (5-1 offshore).  So saying he has a shot to hit 3rd or 4th isn\'t an opinion that will be convertible into a wager.  2nd choices finish 3rd or 4th all the time...

I see the 0-2-X, but if I was going to play a grinder/closer, this would be the one I would play (over Brody\'s Cause, Cherry Wine, Creator, and god forbid, awful yet popular Lani.  Suddenbreakingnews sort of ran sneaky good in the derby in a race without any late flow from closers outside of Exaggerator.

The problem is with Mike Smith jumping aboard, the price went out the window.  if he goes off second choice, I could argue he is an underlay and not the second likeliest winner.

Jim

[Agastache]

Appreciate the response. To be honest, I had not even processed what SBN\'s potential odds might be at post. You are correct, at 5-1, he is not a good play considering his penchant for firing way too late.

[boardedup]

I\'d be shocked if he went off at 5-1 honestly.  M/L 10-1 and likely drifts from there regardless of what\'s happening offshore.

TAP\'s draw \"well\" I expect Stradivari to take a lot of action, which is unfortunate because I kind of like him. Destin as well, should be able to save ground. A Tampa reprise?

For the record Gov Malibu has stalked and won twice at paces that figure to be pretty comparable to the one he\'ll likely see Saturday, I\'d expect him to be forwardly placed and work out another ground saving trip also.  If he\'s good enough is another story.  Though if he moves up from 12-1, I\'ll likely have to find out the \"hard\" way.

[ajkreider]

Here is the NBC, which seems pretty clear.  

NBC Derby Video

I think Lani actually has a good shot for a placing in this.  The TGs are good enough, and he seems to be able to sustain his run.  Has the pedigree as well.  He won\'t be stopping at the 1/4 pole.  SBN has a better chance at the win, but as others have said, the odds reflect that.

[drbillym]

I wish he had had a workout over Big Sandy.  Never raced at Belmont before-will he handle track?

[drbillym]

SBN just jogged 6f gallops 1/2 over main track, passes Lani--per Mike Welch this am.

[jbelfior]

I just jogged over the main track---and passed Lani.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[johnnym]

Considering this would be I believe his 4th different track he has ran on it would be of Little concern to me..

[jerry]

The Belmont has not been kind to horses coming out of the Preakness, especially those who exerted an effort in the Preakness. It\'s played more kindly to fresh horses.

[jbelfior]

SBN 9/2 in the early betting. Destin 16-1. Brody 25-1. The odds must be crazy.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[reboundman]

I heard no less than half a dozen \"experts\" pick SBN on the radio today...

[ajkreider]

Love me some SBN, but don\'t see how you can pass on these two at those odds.  Brody with the same fig (SBN trip error aside) and bred for the distance? Destin with the better number than both, and a running style that could suit this very well?

Frankly, I don\'t believe any of these odds will hold late tomorrow.

[BitPlayer]

I calculated SBN at around 5-1 in the doubles, with Destin at 7 and Brody at 16.

[jerry]

More archives notes. The Belmont hasn\'t been kind to winners of the Wood Memorial either. In fact, I\'m getting the sense that horses who run their tops in March are cooked by the time the Belmont rolls around. Also, since the ban on steroids went into effect, horses who have run well in the Belmont have come in with fairly flat lines and not especially fast lines either.