Belmont Stakes Reflections

[boardedup]

I\'m not sure if he was winning but if he comes off the rail you can rest assured Creator doesn\'t get through. He likely still gets up for show or fourth in that scenario, though once stopped that one woulda took awhile to get rolling again.  But I can\'t help think \"what if\" as I played Destin to win, and used him over top of everyone that finished in the top 6, other than Creator??

I do think Gov Malibu still had something left in the tank, he ran a solid race regardless. Destin ran his race, yet another tough beat at the Belmont wire.  The value offered on these two was incredible imo.

 I thought Stradivari and Brody\'s Cause would have had a bit more to offer late. BC had a nice pattern and felt he was poised at a new top.  Stradivari not quite good enough, yet.  Lani plodded up for his piece as many predicted.

  It\'s tough to stomach not seeing the winner at all in a big spot like that, but honestly I still don\'t see him today...maybe I\'ll start a thread and blame TG like everyone else that\'s salty today...Not sure what\'s up with that?  

...Maybe its that old disease found to stricken gamblers during downswings, but only recently diagnosed, PSSSD (pronounced PISSED) Post Saturday Stakes Sunday is common and can attack anyone.  Common side effects include inability to reason, lashing out and generally blaming others for individual handicapping decisions,and a sense of being much \"smarter\" then one was the prior day. Severe cases may include nausea, vomiting, and betting on the Phillies.   This is a disease that\'s best treated with a full day of \"self medicating.\" Followed by a healthy stretch of \"cashing tickets.\"  Always tomorrow guys, lighten up

[TGJB]

Additionally, there is the agenda issue.

[sekrah]

TGJB Wrote:
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> On yesterday\'s Belmont card alone-- look at Triple
> Threat, Wake Forest (first Lasix at GP),
> Faufilier, La Berma, Inordinate. Those are all the
> Euros that ran at Bel yesterday that had also run
> here, coming in. Actually go look and report back,
> instead of pulling \"scrap the Euro figures\" out of
> your butt. I\'m tired of hearing that anecdotal BS
> from guys who don\'t do their homework.

Isn\'t the first sentence in this post anecdotal?

I\'d like to see a full statistical breakdown to be convinced. I\'ve scanned back through some old BC cards and can find many 3-4 point jumps with Lasix. That seems a bit extreme to me. I\'ll put together a full study some day but the super high end G1 Euro horses over the years always look like massive underlays on TG figs and they won way more than they should have.

[jbelfior]

Here\'s another PSSSD post.
 When you spend 3 weeks dissecting a race, spend countless hours looking over Jerry\'s archives, watch the seminar 5 times, stick to your beliefs on what kind of profile is successful in this race, make the right decisions at the window both horizontally and vertically and walk out of the track with a huge headache and mumbling to yourself after watching a plodding mule nail you on the line you wonder if playing scratch offs isn\'t a better way to go.

Mindless = no stress= happiness.

Taking a break until Saratoga.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

We\'ve done ALL OF THEM, every single  Euro who ran here at any track, and done it twice a couple years apart with EXACTLY the same results. We do this for a living, and we have computers, a great database and George White, who ran the Racing Times, running it and doing our studies.

I mentioned EVERY Euro that ran on the card you have in front of you to make it as un-anecdotal as possible. No, that\'s not how we decide it\'s right. It\'s how YOU do. But after you look at those and the back BC\'s feel free to report back.

[johnnym]

I don\'t think Rosario could hold him any longer he was locked and loaded.
I have no gripe about entering a rabbit in a race,I do have a gripe when the rabbit cuts of a competitor twice. I don\'t watch NASCAR but someone in another thread did mention Nascar has come to horse racing.

I will say this regarding TG they helped me get on the following horses.

Carinia Mia  lost the super
Sharman Ghost had him to win only
Fish Trappe Road wheeld but did not have the winner
Anchor Down Ex and Tri
Flintshire hit the tri
Governor Malibu

One thing that chaps my ass, I am assuming most of us are grown men,for people to come on here and bitch because the seminar was not 100% accurate is damn silly.
I ask who put the gun to your head?
When the day comes that any handicapper bats 100% let me know until then be accuntable for your decisions.

[TGJB]

That was good. But we\'re in a world where accountability is no longer a virtue.

There\'s a guy running for President. His major claim to fame is a TV show where, if things went wrong, the idea was to find someone else to blame (\"Boardroom\") to get out from under. That was supposed to be a good thing.

[boardedup]

J- I hear you, when the time, effort and energy that\'s put in doesn\'t bare fruition it can be beyond frustrating.  When The Gov got stopped and Creater got through I felt sick.  Like I mentioned before I played basically everyone but him yesterday.  It\'s tough to stomach.

 My point was more so that it seems many want to blame TG today.  I guess it bothers me because it comes across like, \" I paid for a seminar and I didn\'t hit every race, wtf!\"

How I look at it is this, people with more knowledge than myself are offering their insight.  I chose to purchase that information, and then I decide how to use the information I was given.  No matter what you\'re doing in life blindly listening to someone else and not making decisions for yourself is begging for trouble.  If you chose to go this route, not doing the work and taking another\'s opinion as gospel, then you need to be willing to live with the results, good or bad.  

And to that point, what about the 3rd or really how bout the 10th yesterday?  The seminar gave you roughly ~435/1 (if you played the super)  maybe I\'m off base here, but when someone serves up a 435/1 play for me on a silver f\'n platter, I really have a hard time coming back and saying yeah but horrible call on Frosted, dropped the ball on Celestine, while accurate I hate your take on KC, really your a bum, just straight retire from making Euro fig\'s and while your at it apologize to me because it\'s TG\'s fault my girlfriend has small boobs and spends all my money!


I didn\'t have a banner day yersterday myself, but I\'m reminded of what an old timer told me ~15 years ago sitting in a warehouse playing poker up in the northwest,  I was running like death and went outside to smoke, he came out and I instantly started in on how unlucky I was to be stuck so bad.  He looked at me and as dryly as possible said, \" you know something son, they can\'t take it from you if you don\'t put it in the middle.\"  Always stuck with me. As much as we want to, there\'s no one to blame for gambling losses but ourselves and ourselves alone. IMVHO

[jp702006]

That was some good advice that old timer gave you. On the flip side, you can\'t win if you don\'t play! Lol:) On to next weekend and the Foster card at CD.

Patrick

[jimbo66]

JohnnyM,

Sounds like you had a good day.  Congrats.

But you have a bad read on the Belmont result.  Impossible to say for sure, but seems EXTREMELY unlikely Governor Malibu is better than 3rd with a clean trip.  I guess it wasn\'t you but SilverCharm that said the \"rabbit\" was instructed to block traffic on the rail, also seems silly.  Frankly, to call him a rabbit is out of line.  Look at pace figures for the Belmont, it was a VERY slow pace.  If he was a rabbit, he was an AWFUL one.  A good rabbit opens up daylight, spreads the field apart, which allows for lots of seams for the closers to find.  This pace was slow, the field was bunched and Irad just did a really good job of finding a way through (no Kudos to the rabbit).  

Destin didn\'t get beat by a \"rabbit\", which I read multiple times today (not here).  As somebody who needed Destin for a large score, I just got beat.  Destin had every chance to get home, Javier gave him a good trip, just got leg weary late and got beat by a horse who likely only beats him at this kind of distance.  

Good luck,

Jim

[johnnym]

Believe it Jimbo I wound up down $80.00 for the day, I am no whale..
As far as GM had him wheeled if he gets 3rd I hit the tri.

[jerry]

One of the positive patterns I got from the archives was that a top followed by a bounce in the derby was a good pattern for the Belmont. Creator, Destin and SBN were the ones that fit that pattern and were fast enough. More importantly is the negative pattern for horses who run in the Preakness especially if it\'s an effort. A completely different animal shows up in the Belmont.

That said, Lani is a pretty nice horse. Great bloodlines. Don\'t know if the connections need the money but I wouldn\'t be surprised to see him under new ownership sometime soon.

[NormandyInvasion]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Here\'s a thought. Look at the back Breeders Cups
> in the Archives, the figures the Euros had coming
> in and what they ran. Then come back and
> apologize.
>
> Again-- WTF do you guys think we do here? We run
> checks on those figures, what they run there and
> here. The ones who add Lasix on average move up a
> point, the ones who don\'t average exactly their
> last figure there when they run here. It\'s not an
> accident . AND-- by definition they are running
> here AFTER running there, so they are older, which
> is important in the case of younger horses.

I\'m surprised they run exactly the same number.  The increased oxygenation of the blood from the West to East travel for horses \"off the plane\" proven by studies seemed to be reflected in the race results.  I think the wiley Coolmoore crew knew there was something there before anyone else.

[TGJB]

Stipulating for the sake of argument the unsupported facts-- if I understand you correctly, you\'re suggesting the Euro numbers are too fast? You and Sekrah should have a conversation.

[NormandyInvasion]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Stipulating for the sake of argument the
> unsupported facts-- if I understand you correctly,
> you\'re suggesting the Euro numbers are too fast?
> You and Sekrah should have a conversation.


No, I\'m not saying any numbers are right are wrong.  I\'m saying that I was surprised to read that BC horses and others off the plane have stayed the same due to the study regarding flying and the Euro results in those races which seemed to back up the study.  It was a fascinating study, published in either the BH or The Horse.  I\'ll have to see if I can find it.