belmont r 7

[philywheel]

The 3 horse went from 17-1 to 5/2 in one flash  , dont know if i ever seen that at a nyra track

crazy

[philywheel]

look at the willpays in the dd and the pik 3 , he should be 20-1

[plasticman]

i was betting that race and looking at the odds and didnt notice the odds change and kept asking myself if this was the right race and now was the 3 such a short price. odd betting, hopefully whoever bet that horse has a lot more money to spend.

[philywheel]

the 4 hrs at 5-1 was a gift ,I thought he would have been 1st or 2nd choice  3-1 atthe most

[jimbo66]

Normally RichieB would do this, but I hear he is revving up for Saratoga, so I will drop a 15 yard personal foul for redboarding on this one Phillywheel.

Your 4:39 pm post or your 4:41 post would have been good spots to talk about the virtues and value of the winner.  Not so much 20 minutes after he wins the race.  

Jim

[philywheel]

Hey Jimbo ,do you know what your talking about?
I wasnt bragging about picking a winner ,I was talking a Horse going from 17_1 to 5/2 in 1 flash, where does it say I bet the 4!!!,   i did bet the 3  , I Think  a apology is in order

PHILYwheel

[jimbo66]

Philly,

Yep.  I know what I am talking about AND I know how to read a sheet (my basic grammar and spelling are OK too).

It was a redboard.

As for the race, the winner was just OK at 5-1 by my read.  He had some 9\'s last year, which was certainly competitive, but Asmussen not a layoff trainer.

The horse whose price amazed you was a contender.  He ran an 11 last time in his first start on turf, had a nice inside post and a right to get better.  

The 5 horse had run 9ish last year, on dirt, and was at least neutral for the switch to turf, and had a right to be a bigger and stronger horse as a first time 4 year old (for a trainer with better layoff stats than Banana thief.

Bajan Summer a point faster than banana thief, with recency and some good races at Belmont.

Carnarsie Kid, while looking like a bounce candidate, was only a point off Banana Thief and 4 times the price.

Mr. Harlan and Uncle Youdge also a point within the winner.

Bottom line is that it looked like an open race.  The winner was \"one of the ones\" but far from an overlaid layover.

Feel free to add some analysis based on figures at any time, as this can be a board for serious players.

Good luck,

Jim

[bellsbendboy]

Jim,

Agree the red board was unusual and did little for the posting capper, claiming the winner was a gift and betting another.  

Read your response and run down on the field, yet it seemed you were playing bingo, perhaps rolling dice or dealing cards.

I\'m sure you can read a sheet, and no doubt serious players use TG, yet your loose analysis on this heat was void of vital data points.  \"Serious players\" incorporate  equipment changes, workouts, breeding, post and pace, trainer/owner intent, distance , surface, configuration, spacing and class.

No offense intended Jim, yet your analysis reminded me of Vito: \"the number is the number\" and that\'s seldom the case.  BBB

[jimbo66]

BBB,

I look forward to your next (first?) handicapping analysis of a race.  

My rundown, after the race, was not a red board handicapping effort.  It was me making a point that 5-1 on the winner was OK, but no great gift in a contentious race.  

Everybody bets differently.  I play 90 percent horizontal wagers, so I am looking at sequences of races where I have one or maybe two strong opinions.  

The race in question was a 4 horse spread in the pick-4.  A fruitless bet after the 8th race went kaput for me.

As for your other points.  Poppycock.  You tell me about trainer intent or \"owner intent\' for NY Bred nw1 allowance horses on the turf.  Nonsense.  

As I said, I look forward to your first post about a race or sequence of races, before they go off.  You have been here what, 8 years?  Time to move from assertions to handicapping....

Good luck,

Jim

[philywheel]

you still dont know what you are talkin about Jimbo , you got to show me where I touted him, my 1st post was about the drastic odds change, and as for the odds on the 4 horse  , you say you are a vertical player , he was a heavy fav in the pik 3 ,yet 4th choice on his odds . this is not that important. Do you want a do want a standing ovation from everyone on this board for finding me out  LOL

[bellsbendboy]

Very well Jim.

Trainer/owner intent is ubiquitous thruout racing incorporating, I would assert, perhaps 85% of all races.  It is not class dependent with 5K, nw2 claimers and  graded stakes equally, evaluated and entered in specific races.

To be sure many stables use TG and to a lesser, and declining extent the competitor across the street; especially in added money events. All well and good for them, yet competent cappers can glean insights into this complex relationship with moderate tenacity and a modicum of research.

Two pieces of data; workouts and the condition book are vital to gain insights into the thought process of the connections. Without both, profitability for the \'capper will prove elusive. Labeling intent as poppycock and nonsense is  naïve in my opinion.


As for the race and the \"gift\" I thought it funny and responded. From thirty seconds of research after the race, here was one, bred dead green, likely long, coming off an extended layoff for the trainers attorney.  His work three back was borderline stake like and I feel strongly the barn bet big.

Lastly, I will probably play the Eddie Read pick 4 and if so will contribute a prerace opinion. bbb