Nyquist

[Tavasco]

Patrick:

I\'m thinking Exxagerator now has too much celebrity to get a bettable price on any surface until the B.C. if that should pan out for him.

So we get Laoban vs Exagerator Gov MalibuAmerican Freedom & Mo Tom could be worse. Where\'s Outwork, racing with Lani in Japan?

[moosepalm]

Clearly, Exaggerator is a slop monster, but since this is a figure board, if you look at his last three races before the Belmont when he was probably a bit over the top, he had the same three numbers, two in the slop and one on a fast surface at Churchill, where he beat 18 other horses primed for that race, and had nearly the same figure as Nyqvist.

[TempletonPeck]

Re Exaggerator, I agree. The value, if any, will be in betting against him for the foreseeable future.

I think I remember hearing that Outwork was going to the farm for a stretch, haven\'t heard anything since a few days after the Derby.

[jbelfior]

Nyquist wants to run outside of horses. He drew the rail again and was sent as he had to be.
The connections of American Freedom know this and pin him down inside down the backstretch. Game, set, match for the Derby winner. They should retire him now.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nyquist wants to run outside of horses. He drew
> the rail again and was sent as he had to be.
> The connections of American Freedom know this and
> pin him down inside down the backstretch. Game,
> set, match for the Derby winner. They should
> retire him now.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

When herd dynamics was mentioned here, it was laughed off the page. When you talk about kickback, being outside of horses, needing the lead, etc.... that is all a part of it. Many slower horses win due to favorable pace situations also.

Accurate performance figures are important, but there is more to the game than numbers on a page.

[jp702006]

You are absolutely correct moose, this is a figure board and exaggerator has ran almost as fast on a dry track as he has in the slop. If you had to bet on one horse on a dry track however, who would you take? My money would be on Nyquist.

Patrick

[moosepalm]

jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You are absolutely correct moose, this is a figure
> board and exaggerator has ran almost as fast on a
> dry track as he has in the slop. If you had to bet
> on one horse on a dry track however, who would you
> take? My money would be on Nyquist.
>
> Patrick

Patrick, I would need to see Nyqvist race on a dry track once more before he would get my money.  I give him major props for all that he\'s accomplished, but he\'s already outrun nearly every historical precedent of horses winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  He\'s logged plenty of 2- and 3-year old miles already, and so has Exaggerator, for that matter.  So, to answer your question, I\'d cast a very timid vote with my wallet for Exaggerator until I see that Nyqvist still has gas left in the tank.

[Silver Charm]

Well said and not sticking a fork in him here. I would like to see this one prove he can navigate trips like what you see in Frosted\'s PP\'s. Look at him in the Wood Memorial and Penn Derby pocket rate and pounce. Same for the Met Mile explosion. He also took it to Pharoah early in the Travers, it cost him, but it also cost AP. Nyquist has rated outside and beaten horses he is better than at a young age. The Derby was a HUGE performance. That was May. Its a different season now and drop in that field today and he looks 3rd best!!