Yes, there probably is a reason you win at some tracks and not others. No, it probably has nothing to do with the figures.
Your analysis of the variables is only correct if we assume that your handicapping skills are perfect, under all circumstances-- that you understand cheap claimers as well as layoff European grass horses, know who the \"move-up\" trainers are on all circuits, understand trainer intent in all cases, and the differences in patterns between better quality horses and cheap ones-- and have all the relevant information with which to make decisions. And I\'m not even getting into the issues that non-purists would raise, like knowledge of \"biases\", etc., or which horses handle shipping well, or which tracks are notorious for horses either liking or hating them (Turfway comes to mind).
Personally, I do very well at SA, DMR and SAR, the tracks you don\'t handle well. I have no chance at Kee, as those who took my picks for a couple of years found out-- I eventually turned the circuit over to someone who would have a better chance. If I knew what I was doing wrong there I would do it differently. I do great on stakes, again as those who follow this site know. I avoid cheap claimers like the plague, since I know both from handicapping and from managing stables that there are variables I can\'t account for, like when cripples have been tapped (draining a joint, injecting cortisone), which can cause an impossible to predict form reversal. So I stay away from those tracks which have lots of cheap races.
Also, when you talk about the crowd-- they are sharper in some places than others, have tendencies. And in some places OTHERS figures are better or worse, affecting your ability to get overlays-- I do figures for all the tracks you mentioned myself, which is not true of Ragozin or Beyer.
