Hey Wrongly,
I am guessing that I won\'t be betting on either filly. But I would prefer the one with more foundation, Miss Sky Warrior, of the two.
I think there is one more lens to look at both \"breakthrough\" numbers through.
As I said a few times, there was an intense speed bias at Aqueduct yesterday. I look at figures earned through a bias with a grain of salt and adjust downwards in my mind when handicapping. I am not saying that is the right way to do it, but that is something I do. So for argument\'s sake, let\'s say that Miss Sky Warrior ran a 4 or 5 point new top yesterday and we take off a couple points for the bias. That makes it a 2 point new top or so. For a filly with lots of foundation and 2 wins at 1 1/8.
A horse I would definitely love to have TGJB\'s 55-1 on.
Now, do I want that horse at 3-1 in a 14 horse field on OAks day. Different question.
I have to say though I am about as blind as can be with Miss Sky Warrior. Hated her in the Demoiselle, thinking no shot she could get 1 1/8 miles. She won. I also tossed her yesterday, thinking the distance was not her friend (although I did lose some confidence in that opinion as the track bias became apparent).
It is still early, but I would say that this is as wide open as the Oaks/Derby have been in quite a few years. Could be a good year to \"data mine\" for longer prices in both races. (although have to admit the more times I watch the replay of Irish War Cry\'s Wood, I think he is the horse to beat by quite a bit)
Jim
