A Good Example

[Tavasco]

Race #1 Belmont Wednesday.

To paraphrase Frank D - MSW races are essentially crap shoots.

What I Noticed (but not through the TG lense)

#1 The entry - Top Owner, Top Trainer, Top Sire begs the question does Stronach have to pay himself $150K stallion fee? So why does trainer Jerkens do so poorly with first time turf starters? I\'ll depend on that and toss them.

#2 Lets Get Loud  I\'ll be curious about the post time price of this one? Reasoning that 4/1 on a Brown trainee is an overlay unless there is another Brown trainee in the race then it gets complicated.

#3 Factorial has never passed a horse and I don\'t expect him to get the lead not a good prospect.

#4 White Flag likely to be the favorite. M/L 5/2 not so bad considering the success trainer Clement has had shortening up in situations like this. My key to verticals.

#5 Shidoshi As partial as I am to Japanese horses this one is name only. My pick as a potential pacesetter which didn\'t work out 1st try.

#6 Master Merion OK this one is quicker than #5 and probable gets the lead trying once again to go gate to wire for the fourth time. Finishing just behind winners c/b called a pattern.

#7 Positive Waves probably not compromised by the outside post position and attracts Irad Ortiz.

The Essentials

So once again does this race offer value and if so where? Check the Thorograph analysis for an expert opinion.

A simple approach c/b 4/6 ebx. Arguable they both have been running against larger tougher fields.

If the #7 concerns you, as he does me, maybe use the 4/6/7 tri box. or ebx  maybe the 6/7 ebx is more valuable.

Is the value in using the Chad Brown trainee in the top two positions or leaving him out?

How about getting one of the long shots at the bottom of the super? Either the #1 (there c/b two starting) or #5 Shidoshi (for Santana fans)

Last but not least In Mott I trust. Factorial has always worked on the fast side and his recent was worthy of note for those who care about such things.

I would never have gotten to this bottom line without jotting down my thoughts. The 2/3 ebx. A combination likely to be under appreciated because it requires two horses to improve significantly off sub par #\'s.

Which horse will the syndicate(s) beat down?

Any Insight appreciated.

[sekrah]

That Dutrow horse with Irad gets my nod. Had to make his debut from the rail (on soft turf), and finished well after seemingly struggling to keep up early. I like betting those ones coming back to improve a point or two.

I don\'t like the workout pattern on that Mott horse, had two works after that last race, then 3 months off, just restarting the works on May 11th?  I like 45-60 days of works before a race.

The only other one that looks good is the Wesley Ward, although being gelded kind of scares me because this one was running and developing well.

[Tavasco]

I just watched the replay of the Dutrow colt. Not the easiest of trips. Worked his way through traffic and just got going too late. Agreed, this one has upside.

I also watched replay of  C. Brown\'s trainee. Not to be dismissed.

[APny]

You watched the replay and didn\'t get the sense that Cornelio had no desire to win that race?? Seemed to me he repeatedly checked the horse in an effort to take him back to last.  Just gave him a race.  ThoroGraph stats show Dutrow deadly second time out, especially when bet.  Looks like with Irad up, they\'ll actually try this time.

[sekrah]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You watched the replay and didn\'t get the sense
> that Cornelio had no desire to win that race??
> Seemed to me he repeatedly checked the horse in an
> effort to take him back to last.  Just gave him a
> race.  ThoroGraph stats show Dutrow deadly second
> time out, especially when bet.  Looks like with
> Irad up, they\'ll actually try this time.


Watch the head on.  The horse to his outside bore into him throughout the opening furlong, then another came out directly in front of him.  I hate the inside when the turf is not firm too.

[APny]

Just watched.  Doesn\'t change my opinion. Jock never let the horse run early when he clearly had room up rail.  I tend to be more cynical than most about this game.  I also don\'t believe Baffert was feeding his horses hay and oats to get them to run like they did Saturday.

[sekrah]

The rail was open, but I\'ll chalk that up to a tactical decision, he was certainly trying in the lane.  He was on a 21-1 maiden debuter. There\'s a reason Cornelio isn\'t relevant much anymore, and not getting top mounts anymore.  He\'s 48 years old and is two years remove from a very scary injury, I\'m surprised he has the nerve to still climb on these animals, but he\'s still not going to be aggressively hitting holes like these young guys do.

Let\'s hope this one runs better today and we get the money.

[jerry]

How about Belmont Race 5? Nice spread in the weights on some. Generous ML on others. Iffy favorite. For some reason I think Sciacca\'s horse could make some noise. Late developing sire. A decent 3 yo top to run back to. Any takers?

[johnnym]

Nice job

[sekrah]

I like the Linda Rice horse.  Went wayyyy too fast last time out.

[boardedup]

Thanks for posting this Tavasco, it really is a \"good example\" of thought process and working through a race to determine value.  I like how you gave yourself multiple plays to choose from.  That\'s something I need to pay more attention to, like I got the feeling you weren\'t really interested in playing a super in this spot at all but you still wrote it down as a possibility.  

A\"macro\" approach to solving a \"micro\" problem so to say?

I\'m not sure if you did this in response to my question the other day or not, but either way, it helps out a lot and I appreciated reading the race breakdown. Thanks for doing it.