The Remsen

[Tavasco]

This upcoming Sturday Dec. 2nd will see the Remsen Stakes @ Aqu. The weather is forcast to be mostly sunny. A wind of 4 mph and a high temperature of 49 degrees. So superficially I don\'t expect any factors which can distort any perfomance figure.

I mention that because recent history has seen the Remsen Stakes produce performance figure standouts of dubious use. Some have given added weight to the race because it is run at 1 + 1/8 of a mile. Thinking a colt who ran fast as a two y/o at a distance just a bit short of the KD distance has merit.

Maybe it is just me but I consider the race akin to the Wood Memorial. Races which produce over hyped colts who at best turn out to be horses for the course. Some opine the field will be second rate prospects as the crops best will rest or winter in warm weather.

Avery Island is a nicely bred colt with connections whom, one could expect to have, the long term perspective. So he\'s my pick to become this years \"steam engine.\" On second thought, I suppose TAP is more likely to swing for the fences.

[FrankD.]

Tavasco,

It’s not just you.....

The purse got as high as 400K a few years ago, dropped to 300 and now 250K.

The last Derby winners who won here came back to back in 93 & 94, Go For Gin & Thunder Gulch. Before that it was Pleasant Colony in 1980 who was put up in a DQ.

This race has burnt up more futures $$$ than any other and not just on the winners. Can you say Gift Box? My one and ONLY future bet I’ve ever made as the chirping Brownie’s knocked him from north of 100/1 to 30/1. Now a 4yr old,still eligible for a NW2X he has yet to step foot on a Kentucky race track👎

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

I remember Gift Box and the suction that I almost succumber to also. As we bring the 2017 season to a close I thought I\'d post a link which falls under the heading perspective.

It could also be considered mental masterbation by some. FWIW

Perspective

[belmont3]

Don\'t Look a Gift Box in the mouth so they say.

Went off at 3/5 Today at the Big A and..............Still eligible  for that NW2

[FrankD.]

The Remsen was once relevant:
Black & White photograph and Uncle Bill was a 135 lbs exercise rider......

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/224965/remsen-foreshadowed-damascus-domination

[skitimber]

Look at the size of the crowd!  Rarely happens now!

[One_Time]

As the “size of the crowd” contracts, what will TG look like 20 years from now?

[richiebee]

Would rather look at the glass as half full. While there may never be a crowd of
50,000 at AQ ever again, how many people were playing the races on the internet
from their homes in 1966?

[Tavasco]

Good point Richie and along those lines, In 1966 I may have enjoyed a crowd of 50,000 but not anymore.

Something old something new, as the ROTW suggests in the years before dependable performance figures Avery Island might be odds on. Yet today with figures the colt will not be considered one of the fastest at the weights.

However, years back our handicapping was heavily influenced by pedigree (old). So when I read the Avery Island sheet and focus on the top right corner of dam Kinda Spicy (new). I notice she ran twice @ 2 y/o, won each time with a top of 4?

Kinda Spicy won her 1st start in June at Bel by 6+ lengths, came back @ SAR in an Alw race and won by 4+ lengths (if memory serves - 20 minutes ago not the race itself). Both routes the 2nd start @ 1+1/8 mile. She was fast enough to crush this years field.

I also note that Kinda Spicy\'s family tree goes through Chile (apropos) back to Mr Prospector.

Additionally I applied old/new technique of watching the maiden race that the two figure horses came out of at Bel. Based on that video I wouldn\'t risk anything on C. Brown\'s entry not only because his name has four (4) a\'s in it but he was spent at the finish line in his last,  EDIT - A Big Oops, I believe I confused the two entry mates 1 & 1A in the Bel MSW.

TG\'s pick Triple Dog Dare finished very stongly. Which means he ran like a slug for the first half mile before losing ground on the turn and finishing best in tight with company. A nine point jump up. Fear not Rudy can mitigate that.

Meanwhile Frank D. mentions that Simon Callahan, Bejarano and Americanize probably didn\'t ship in for the Macy\'s Day Parade and I agree. So Shipping over from Lrl or PRX with Vouch or Tap Rat Strike is not the same thing but in a field where Jumps ups can\'t be ruled out. Several of the shippers represent economic opportunity that locals may not see.

So Richie or anyone, I would love to get an up close real live assessment of which horses look good in the paddock or post parade.

[richiebee]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------


> Meanwhile Frank D. mentions that Simon Callahan,
> Bejarano and Americanize probably didn\'t ship in
> for the Macy\'s Day Parade and I agree. So Shipping
> over from Lrl or PRX with Vouch or Tap Rat Strike
> is not the same thing but in a field where Jumps
> ups can\'t be ruled out. Several of the shippers
> represent economic opportunity that locals may not
> see.
>
> So Richie or anyone, I would love to get an up
> close real live assessment of which horses look
> good in the paddock or post parade.

Tavasco, I admire your preparation and unfortunately I will not be able to
provide any paddock observations. I will be in Bed Room Downs keeping an eye on
NCAA scholar-athletes on the gridiron. Hopefully you will be able to catch Maggie\'s musings.

You mention the Lrl/Parx shippers, but not the one that caught my eye. That
would be V.I.P. Code, trained by Phil Schoenthal, who has usually done well
with 2YOs. In his last start, his only turf start, VIP was beaten a length by
Therapist, an undefeated (3/3) Clement runner. A tough call given the pricey
pedigrees and top local trainers in this race, but with low profile connections
this one should go off at at least his 20/1 ML.

Hey, in a world where Ron Jeremy can be accused of sexual harassment, I guess
anything is possible.

[TGJB]

Ron Jeremy made the Staten Island Register? Cause it ain\'t in the Times.