T Severini Wrote:
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> Well...My primary dislike was 5-2, but he was able
> to wear down the only other speed and that set him
> up pretty nice. If he doesn\'t break or take to the
> slop, fair additional probabilities, then both
> favs are dead in the payouts. I\'ll check his back
> numbers with a Red Board now, but I\'m pretty sure
> that Santa Anita Derby spelled bounce but for
> Baffert. I have not liked Scat Daddy\'s but a Scat
> in Bafferts hands is a whole nuther matter.
>
> My strategy is rarely to just win a Derby. I want
> to clobber it.
>
> I thought Scatifying the two favorite Scats was
> the way to go. It didn\'t work out with one of
> them.
T Sev,
You can still clobber a race with a 5/2 shot, in a large field, with tons of public money in the pools. Not all 5/2 shots are the same. I hated Always Dreaming on the Oaks undercard. I liked Justify quite a bit, as I did GM and Audible.
This great game has been my favorite wagering hobby for 30 years. I handicap sports every day, but nothing comes close to putting money through the windows and watching these magnificent animals race. If I could only wager on one sport for the rest of my life, it would be horse racing. This coming from a guy that wins at sports wagering, but has been a losing player over his lifetime betting on horses (although I\'m better than I used to be). Thats how much I love horse racing.
One of the things I was told years ago by a very successful player, is that being successful is 25% handicapping and 75% constructing tickets. He is spot on.
One of the things I like to do after a day or weekend of racing is take note of what happened, specifically with wagering. I look at my contenders and how I used them, look at the results, and try to understand how could I have constructed a winning ticket. I take notes, and keep a file of specific bet structures. Tris and supers, Pick 3/4.
While I didn\'t cash the big one, I was damn close. One thing I started doing is hitting all in the 4 spot on supers. Yes, it costs a bit of money. But I don\'t do it every time, I do it when a big score is possible and I can narrow the main contenders... 14 and 20 horse fields, with a sloppy track tossed in, fits the bill....and I do it when my bankroll allows. Usually Big Cap weekend, BC weekend, Derby Day..days when my bankroll is at its max.
I liked Justify, GM, and Audible. Mend a toss, Bolt playable underneath from JB\'s \"A\" group. Good Magic was my top choice, so that was the one I targeted with a Super wager.
GM over Aud/Justify/Bolt in 2/3 and the all button 4th. Cost $102 if I recall properly. Already lost a chunk of money by that point, and didn\'t want to spend another $204 doing the same with the other 2. It was the right idea, just targeted the wrong contender.
My long winded point is that this race could have been clobbered with that 5/2 shot on top.
Last comment. Once again JB\'s information and numbers were excellent. While I just missed huge scores both days, TG put me in a position to have a chance and that is all you could really ask for. I don\'t need a guy to take me by the hand, walk me to the window, and tell me what to do. Part of what makes this so exhilarating is taking the info and figuring it out yourself.
Looking forward to the Preakness and hopefully a Justify win, then the incredible electricity of a TC possibility.
