Pavel / Japan race

[bluechip21]

Does anyone have an opinion on this Japan race? Feel like it may be ripe to get some money back Pavel. Thoughts?

[Tavasco]

The morning/midnight line is an incredible 35/1. If he runs his race he must be considered an overlay and contender (imo). Reddam & trainer Mora (I thought he was trained by Doug O\'Neil?) must have a good reason to go to Sushiland.

I worry the jockey Mario Guttierez will lose too much ground but he occasionally surprises me.

Maybe it\'s all about breeding but, if not, geez it\'s not easy to get 35/1 on a horse that is able to run fast sometimes.

I\'ll take a shot.

Then with 11 minutes until post Pavel is 4/1. I\'ll switch to Morea #9 Sunrise Soar he is 20/1 and I trust the jockey.

Ouch - Pavel ended up going off @7/1 and loomed menacingly in the stretch (on the outside of course) before disappearing and my choice ran third to the even money favorite LE VENT SE LEVE (JPN) beaten a head by #12 a 48/1 outsider who headed me late.

[bluechip21]

Thanks for this. I did not hit but this is fantastic analysis for a race in the land of the the rising sun.