Baffert last year made Roadster his top 2019 Derby selection. Baffert wouldn\'t have put a plodder in that spot, and Roadster ain\'t bred to be a plodder. There\'s a brilliant mix of speed and stamina top & bottom. He\'s been running over very deep SA surfaces, not far behind very quick horses. Point is, from post 15, Roadster might wind up getting a pretty darn good 3w trip, without having to be used up early.
If the above is correct, the loss is Mike Smith is a positive, as the ride won\'t be that difficult, and the odds are 20% higher.
And it probably doesn\'t hurt that Roadster is as likely as any to run a new top here.
