So I did the analysis for DMR yesterday. In the stake I thought the favorite was about 60% to win (before scratches), Declan\'s Moon around 20%. Since Roman Ruler figured to be very short I put up DM to win @ 6-1 or more.
There was a big carryover, and a mandatory payout since it was the last day of the meet, so I played the pick 6. There were three races that required spreading a lot, so when it came to the stake (which had now scratched down to 4), I had to choose between singling RR (whom I now figured at 70%) or adding DM, which would have doubled the size of the ticket. Since my partners and I were already going for $3,200, that would have meant putting in a lot (for us), more than I thought it was worth.
Anyway, you know what happened. Those who took the analysis were happy. The 5 paid $2,400, so we got most of our money back. And if we had had the 6 we would have knocked the price down to about $200k, so what\'s the big deal.
On the other hand, we would have had a lot more fives...
