Same Old, Same Old, or a real opportunity.

[Tavasco]

According to a posting on the Ragozin board today, one of their well-known devotees noted that Concert Tour\'s performance figure was posted on the Rags weekly Twitter feed as a 9. About a TG 6? Beyer 94. Despite what the race looked like. Consequently, he would be against  CT in the Arkansas Derby. Because the Rags # grades the race as slow and the crowd wouldn\'t know that.

My knee-jerk reaction was to pen a sermon promoting the idea that going all-in against - in the upcoming Arkansas Derby would not be my approach. Then I tore it up to just repeat a couple of my beliefs.

A. This situation is another instance of changing track conditions which, some deduce Jake ignores.

B. I prefer a holistic approach to detecting value as opposing to relying on a single handicapping factor.

Some facts I turned up researching my sermon. From TG KD archives a TG 6 into the Derby from the OP path would be a colt like Sonneteer.

Cupid looked good in the Rebel and was 10th in the Ark Derby.

From my overactive imagination - three years from now. Did I ever tell you the story of when I went all-in against Triple Crown Winner Concert Tour a race after he destroyed the field in the 2021 Rebel Stakes?

[JohnTChance]

I suspect Asmussen’s BIG LAKE, who finished third in the Rebel, paired his 5 ThoroGraph. CONCERT TOUR beat him by five lengths, so I’d guess he ran a 2-ish (or 3-ish?) to win it. Baffert’s good 3 yr. olds often come out with a “good, better, then best” troika.

[johnnym]

Big Lake got checked pretty good in the lane.
Yes maybe he ran a 5 but if he doesn’t get
Checked??
If he comes back he will get some of my $$