Louisiana Derby

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yes, I have a question:

What do High Limit\'s previous trainer, his current trainer, he second place finisher in the Louisiana Derby as well as the first, second and fourth place finishers in the New Orleans Handicap have in common?

Isn\'t it funny how these commonalities keep rearing their head?

Great training, great horses. I may pass the Derby this year if they can\'t get a handle on this nonsense. BOS\'s rebreak was a thing of beauty.

[kev]

Thats fine CTC, but it\'s not like these are 10k claimed horses jumping up to stakes. Thats my point as for the top trainers, their going to get the good baby\'s, it\'s going to be harder for you guys to prove anything when their getting well bred horses all the time. I said that early if this is driving some people crazy, then stop playing horse racing. Hell Todd and Bobby lose about 70% of the time anyways.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Unless its been the Breeders Cup they haven\'t been losing 70% of the time in the 500K races the last 4-5 years.

I\'m concerned for the game. I caught the one race and was half appalled by it. I expected it to be a bit tougher than that.

Wanderin Boy was a good horse ready to run a good race and he pushed BOS and essentially cooked himself. On those fractions BOS should have been cooked too. I\'m appalled at what I saw and what makes it even the more unpalatable is I called it. I knew it was gonna happen. These guys are ruining the game and many of you are darn close to accomplices. Apologists. Todd Pletcher did not eclipse Wayne Lukas in this manner. Bobby Frankel didn\'t suddenly happen upon the horse fountain of youth four years ago. If you don\'t understand whats going on you\'re hopeless.

[kev]

It\'s funny you bring you Wanderin Boy before the race was going ot be ran, I said I hope this horse doesnt run a big one, cause I like his pattern and wanted a off race and some weeks to play him right back, looks like I got the off race. Umm check your stats Todd P. is batting at 23% in stakes and Bobby F. is 28%  now what??? Hell check this out, Todd P. horses that go off at 4-1 to 10-1 is only winning at 12% and they make up 29% of his starts. Just wait your Wanderin Boy should run well next out, would like to see that number first.

I did make a nice sized bet on Limehouse in the New Orleans Handicap. Even though I didn\'t cash, I\'m satisfied I got good value for my money.

I also think the race was very instructive. The pace was clearly very competitive. Notice that Badge of Silver (the higher quality of the two speeds) went on to win the race despite being used hard, yet Wanderin Boy who was coming off a \"loose lead\" win backed up quite badly as the second best speed.

I don\'t care what speed figure anyone gave Wanderin Boy for his last race. I don\'t care what they give him for yesterday\'s performance. His prior race was overrated because he got a good trip loose on the lead. Yesterday\'s performance will be underrated because he was used hard against a superior horse on the lead. There are no bounces, patterns, etc.. to his numbers for these races. That will be total nonsense. In fact, after I get to examine the pace figures a bit more closely, I wouldn\'t be shocked if the two performances were very similar despite the vastly different speed figures they will be assigned.

I think BOS ran a terrific race. Again, I need to examine the charts and pace etc... a little more closely. There is some indication the track was carrying speed well. Maybe that\'s why he was able to get the distance despite being used so hard. I didn\'t think that was the case before the race because even though a few horses wired, there were no suprises. Subsequently (given his win and the next 2 race results) perhaps the track was biased. Given the duel, Limehouse may have won on an honest racetrack. It\'s a tough call.  

If the track was honest, BOS\'s race may also be better than the speed figure assigned would seem to indicate.



Post Edited (03-13-05 09:32)

derby,

I don\'t think the issue is \"How Fast High Limit Ran\".

The issue is \"How He Ran Fast\".

You can never knock a horse that puts up a huge speed figure (which HL probably did yesterday), but you can downgrade the performance because of the conditions it was earned under.

Notice the difference in the pace between the Louisiana Derby and the New Orleans Handicap. Even though the difference was only 3/5s after a mile, the difference between the horses is much larger than that. BOS was engaged by another decent horse and battled in vastly superior fractions.

High Limit earned his figure against the second string 3 year olds (several of which didn\'t even fire), on a loose lead, in a slow pace, on what now appears to have been a speed biased race track (if anything). If he didn\'t win and run fast under these conditions, he would probably be an automatic throwout in his next prep.

Given that he did run fast and win easily, I think we can conclude he is pretty good. He proved more yesterday than he did at 2. But I think we can also conclude with complete certainly that whatever figure he is assigned for that race, it wasn\'t nearly as good a performace as the figure would indicate.

The trick from here is to figure out where he goes next. I am of the belief that despite Frankel\'s ability to get horses ready off a layoff, he couldn\'t possibly be dumb enough to have this horse 100% wound up for the LA Derby when the Kentucky Derby is the objective. I think there is a little more in the tank.

I believe it is possible that he will run a slower figure in his next race (because of less favorable trip related issues), but actually run better. Others may call it a bounce or say he ran too fast too early or whatever, but I think the reality will have a lot to do with trips.