Question for Jerry or Alan

[kev]

This question is on pairing up numbers. What are the good and bads when a horse ( 3yo ) pairs up a top. Say what factors goes into capping next out?? Maybe was the first number a big jump-up, or timing into the 3rd race, maybe the TGI has some part into it. I\'m talking about say a horse has a 6.1 at two and then runs a 3.1 and then another 3.1, how to cap next out?? Thanks. I\'ll try to come up with some horses from the past that had this.

[kev]

Horse\'s from the past coming into the derby off this. WILD HORSES-WAR EMBLEM-EASY GRADES-ANEES-SAARLAND-MEDAGLIA D\'ORO-EMPIRE MAKER-BORREGO-PEACE RULES-FIFTY STARS. 3 out of the 10 either tripled-up or ran a new top. Six of them had nice forward moving lines and was never set back. Only one of them paired-up.

[TGAB]

Indeed you mention the salient factors: 1. development to date--how much, how soon--as framed by its TGI; and 2. timing into the next race. The trainer, strengths and weaknesses, and race distance might play a part as well. Over the long run one gets a sense of what to expect. But there is no hard and fast answer as each horse is its own individual.

[kev]

Yes, I though of that later on also, the individual factor. For the most part it\'s read as a positive read?? Or maybe it\'s when they come back around to a old top and pair it up.