Aqueduct 4/9

[jimbo66]

Ok Michael,

Gentlemen\'s bet.  I think Wilko was wider around the first turn and the second turn.  

I am not saying I like the horse much, but I will use a few 30-1 + shots in the bottom few slots of my superfecta on Derby Day.

Yes, 5400 miles for that ride was great. They could have gotten Jamie Spencer for a few less miles.......

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> Chuckles,
>
> Your posts about Bellamy Road are eerily similar to your posts
> about Ghostzapper before the BC Classic,

Really?, heres what I said pre B.C.Classic:

 Re: 0-2-x for Ghostzapper - to JB
Author: Chuckles_the_Clown2
Date:   10-30-04 12:29

bdhsheets wrote:

> \"this is your brain, and this is your brain on drugs\"?\"
>
> Where\'s CtC when you need him....
>

Implying I\'m on drugs?....lol Maybe ocassional beer or wine.

I think JB thinks Ghost and Liam got a bit juiced. Perhaps. I find it interesting that Frankel gave little thought to taking Ghost long until recently. I agree that the key to the late Frankel entries are the early Frankel entries. Liam is a good horse at 9 marks. So is Ghost. The question is can they be a good horse at 10 after those recent efforts. He\'s gonna be mixed up in a somewhat hot pace. The way the track plays could be very important. The Classic is a GREAT race and I\"m not implying I have the winner. I think it has potential value.

CtC

and heres what I said post:

 Re: Ghostzap Hangover
Author: Chuckles_the_Clown2
Date:   10-31-04 04:49

I sucked, but Ghostzapper surprised me.

I bet against him on Frankels poor early performers and the no juice could be administered theory. I know this horse has some talent, but I\'m literally stunned this horse won the Classic on two distance races one of which was against nothing. I know he scored very high on T-Graphs. I spose at 5-2 I wasn\'t concerned. Perhaps I\'m an eternal skeptic, but I think the needle man was able to sneak in on this guy. One of the weirdest race patterns I\'ve ever seen.

CtC

Most of my Ghostzapper comments pertained to the analysis of the race after it was run. I did have Roses in May in my exotics and on top in that race by the way. That race was and remains an abomination.
 
> with the exception of
> the fact that you aren\'t questioning the distance for Bellamy
> Road.

Who says I\'m not questioning the distance for Bellamy Road?

>
> Trying to beat the favorites is an admirable and smart thing to
> do, in my opinion, but the case you are making against Bellamy
> Road, is not strong.  The horse is just as impressive as Smarty
> Jones, and I dare say more impressive.

It depends upon how you evaluate loose on the lead scores doesnt it? and races where the a challenge developed.

> the horses he beat in
> the Wood, while not top notch, were faster or even with all the
> horses in the Santa Anita Derby, except Sweet Catomine.

Says Who? But, assuming thats true did they come remotely close to those back figures Saturday?  REMOTELY

 
> If the number is -4, then Bellamy Road is 4 points faster than
> any other three year old.  And, the only horses that are within
> 4 points are Afleet Alex (sprint figure), Sun King (one turn
> figure), and Blues and Royals (one prep in Dubai).
>
> That is a very very strong \"number edge\", in my opinion.

Provided you\'re surpremely confident in the numbers.

[Michael D.]

and no, noboby else gets 75-1 (not until i see the #).

[jimbo66]

So Chuckles, your point is that the comments I was referring to about GZ were made by you after the race, instead of before the race?  Ok, I will give you that.  I didn\'t research the comments, i was posting from memory, I just remember the comments about you looking forward to betting against him again, because the race in the BC was not \"true\".  Doesn\'t sound like you diagree, you called it an \"abomination\".

\"Providing I am extremely confident in the number\".  What is that, a shot at Beyer or T-Graph?

I am generally \"confident\" in numbers, not extremely confident.  But in this case, what the numbers told me after the Wood coincide with what my eyes saw, which makes me very confident.  

The bigger problem is when the numbers don\'t correspond with what your eyes saw.  The example I can remember is Harlan\'s Holiday.  When I saw him inhale the Floriday Derby field a few years back, I was sure it was a big figure and a derby winner.  But the Beyer came back slow (I don\'t know about the T-Graph, I wasn\'t following T-Graph figures then).  That is a tougher call.

As for \"says who\", with regards to the horses in the Wood being as fast as the horses in the SA Derby, I am referring to T-GRaph figures.  You are on the T-Graph board, so you don\'t mind if I use their figures instead of your home-made figures, especially seeing as I don\'t have your figures..........

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> So Chuckles, your point is that the comments I was referring to
> about GZ were made by you after the race, instead of before the
> race?  Ok, I will give you that.  I didn\'t research the
> comments, i was posting from memory, I just remember the
> comments about you looking forward to betting against him
> again, because the race in the BC was not \"true\"  Doesn\'t
> sound like you diagree, you called it an \"abomination\".

Thats correct. I still believe the B.C. Classic fell apart for a number of reasons and was run on a track becoming wicked. Roses in May looked good in winning the Dubai World Cup however and that bodes well for TGraphs scoring of the BC Classic. However my post race comments pertaining to Ghostzappers leisurely fractions still apply to how I view his chances in a true race and they apply equally to Bellamy Road. Neither the BC Classic nor the Wood was a race at all.


>
> \"Providing I am extremely confident in the number\".  What is
> that, a shot at Beyer or T-Graph?

I\'m just saying a number is going to be very difficult to make in the circumstances. Shug doubted Survivalists distance ability all along. Do you think he got better at the Woods 9 marks? Do you think Golden Missile was right? Do you think Scrappy T was ready? If TGJB says Neg 4 thats big weight. But if you ask him how certain he is, I bet hes gonna give you a probability.
 
> I am generally \"confident\" in numbers, not extremely confident.
>  But in this case, what the numbers told me after the Wood
> coincide with what my eyes saw, which makes me very confident.
>
>
> The bigger problem is when the numbers don\'t correspond with
> what your eyes saw.  The example I can remember is Harlan\'s
> Holiday.  When I saw him inhale the Floriday Derby field a few
> years back, I was sure it was a big figure and a derby winner.
> But the Beyer came back slow (I don\'t know about the T-Graph, I
> wasn\'t following T-Graph figures then).  That is a tougher
> call.
>
> As for \"says who\", with regards to the horses in the Wood being
> as fast as the horses in the SA Derby, I am referring to
> T-GRaph figures.  You are on the T-Graph board, so you don\'t
> mind if I use their figures instead of your home-made figures,
> especially seeing as I don\'t have your figures..........

That was a very impressive visual race. It tied a track record. TGraph is gonna score it large. I think theres a little more to it though and I hope the odds incentive is there for those that want to say \"not so fast\".

CtC

[NoCarolinaTony]

They could have stayed local and got Kerwin John................

[beyerguy]

I agree CtC, I don\'t see why everyone is so quick to assume Survivalist ran his usual race.  I don\'t think he did run a 4, especially when I see him barely run down a completely spent, finsished, exhausted Scrappy T.  Just my two cents, worth about a penny.

[Michael D.]

beyer,
what did you give bellamy for his late pace #?

[jimbo66]

Beyerguy,

Why would you say Scrappy T was completely spent, finished and exhausted?  Scrappy T had run a 2 3/4 in the race before, not a 4.  So, you have him backing up 3 or 4 points?  I don\'t think so.

Are you basing your \"spent finished and exhausted\" comments because Scrappy T. was near a fast pace?  Well, the pace was not fast for that track that day.  He had a nice inside post and tracked a nice pace, not a blistering one.  And he tracked it, he wasn\'t \"on it\".  

They ran 43.1 or so in the sprint race to the half.  46 is not quick for a grade one quality 3-year old on that track on that day.

I also don\'t understand why everybody on this board thinks Survivalist is a sprinter and couldn\'t pair up at 1 1/8?  By Danzig out of Mr. Prospector mare.  Maybe doesn\'t want 1 1/4, but 1 1/8 should be a fit.  This isn\'t Phone Trick or Glitterman.

[beyerguy]

Let\'s keep it TG related.  I don\'t pay any attention to late ratings on dirt anyway.

I think anyone making figs for this race has a very tough task ahead of them, and the racing secretary, as usual on Wood day, didn\'t do figure makers any favors.

[Michael D.]

i thought survivalist had every right to get 9f. danzig is neutral. the mare, though by mr prospector, is out of con game, one of the all time great phipps mares. she is a full to seeking the gold, who got 10f pretty well.

[beyerguy]

Jimbo,

I don\'t want to go into a lot of detail.  The pace was normal for that final time at Aqueduct.  Meaning, Bellamy Road ran a pretty even race all the way around.  Now, lets for a second assume TG had pace numbers, and the final time was a 4 neg, the pace would have also been around 4 neg.  I guarentee you Scrappy has never run that fast early, not even remotely close.  Scrappy was 1/2 length back after a half, I think most would define that as on the pace.  He was 2.5 back at the 3/4s for a reason, he could not keep up.

All things considered, I thought Scrappy was quite scrappy. :-)