Brave New World

[Kasept]

Riva Ridge set that 9f record in \'73 at four in the Gr. II Stuyvesant. He carried 130#, beat Forage by 3 lengths and the DRF rating-variant for the day was 101-09.

[SJU5]

Great info...yes my trainer discussion was just prior to these newer rules being implemented.

This is good to see that NYRA DOES listen to the concerns of the horsemen and women and uses their imput on this, as NYRA calls it..a work in progress!

Good job NYRA!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think you\'ll get more on Noble Causeway than 10-1 and I do think he will close.

Afleet Alex is a lot of horse and that last race was to my eyes the most impressive of all the preps. He beat some fair horses in the Ark. The competition increases exponentially in the Derby, but what is not to like about Alex?, especially from a figures perspective? He has a solid foundation. Hes been fast and has not improved a great deal from his two year old top. He\'s king of the workouts and he has the right pace style. He\'s beaten many of those in the race, but for Wilko and a horror trip. I think he\'ll be favored. If he draws a bad hole thats probably the biggest knock against him, cuz his jockey hasn\'t proven to me he\'s adept at trips.



Post Edited (04-30-05 09:23)

[richiebee]

Without commenting on his Derby Day chances, it is interesting to note that Afleet Al is one of the only contenders that has the look of a traditional Derby horse in that he had an extensive 2YO campaign and will have run 9 races when he faces the starter next Saturday.

The other contenders Bell Road (Derby will be 6th start), Bandini (6th start), High Fly (7th start), Greeley\'s Galaxy (5th start), Noble Causeway (7th start)and Sun King (8th start)are more similar to recent Derby heroes: Smarty (6 starts prior to Derby), Funny Cide (6), War Emblem (7), Monarchos (6), FuPeg (5), Grindstone (5).

Caveat to supporters of Greeley\'s and Hi Limit: No Derby winner since Exterminator (1918)won with only 4 starts prior to the Derby.

Of the last 9 Derby winners, only 4 were 2YO stakes winners: (Real Quiet and Silver Charm won graded stakes, Smarty and Funny won state bred stakes).

With regards to the traditional way of bringing a colt to the Derby, the times they are a changing, and its interesting that even the \"old school\" Afleet Al is being \"interval trained\" (multiple trips to the track each morning) up to the Derby.



Post Edited (04-30-05 13:13)

[TGJB]

Regarding BR\'s Wood figure, this was a situation that goes straight to the figure making comments I made here recently. The problem is not just how you deal with BR and Survivalist, it\'s also how do you deal with all those horses behind them. We posted the race here before-- you can find it with a search for \"Wood\" and \"attached\"-- and you will see what the options were. Not that it matters, but this is a time it fit with the sprints, and I added 3 relative to the other 2 turn race. Andy did it the same as I did, Len about a point slower-- and I would very much like to see him post full sheets for that race. It would be very interesting, considering how fast they had the New York 3yo preps-- in their Derby probables package they had Scrappy T going back 8 points and Survivalist back 2 1/2 off a pair in Florida, and they were 8 clear of the next horse, so the rest have to be going back 10-15 points or more.

Re Riva Ridge, who won the first Derby I ever bet, shortly after I joined Ragozin-- keep in mind that not only was he a 4yo when he set that record, but as I said in \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\", the track wasn\'t nearly as deep then (cushion was 2 1/2 inches then, 3 1/2 now), and the track had a higher clay to sand ratio, making it faster when dry than the current soil.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> Regarding BR\'s Wood figure, this was a situation that goes
> straight to the figure making comments I made here recently.
> The problem is not just how you deal with BR and Survivalist,
> it\'s also how do you deal with all those horses behind them. We
> posted the race here before-- you can find it with a search for
> \"Wood\" and \"attached\"--

I did a search and could not come up with the TFigs for the Wood. I\'d certainly lay them over the horses to try and ascertain the merits of figs on the margins.

If you take the horses one by one, to me its pretty clear they all went south badly.

Going Wild - Finished last, beaten 41 lengths. Can there be any doubt?

Pavo - Coming off a career effort in the Gotham I believe. I read the poor Wood as a bounce to the moon.

Naughty New Yorker - beaten 32 lengths, beaten 7 and 15 respectively by Galloping Grocer and Scrappy T, both horses he handled in the Whirlaway. Finished close to in the Gotham. 1st time Lasix in the Wood, did it dull him?

Galloping Grocer - Tactical decision to lay off the pace in the Wood. Did it discourage GG? He certainly didn\'t pick up a foot.

Scrappy T - Significant layoff, Saddle slipped 4 marks into race. Came home in over 28 seconds.

Survivalist - Its really all about him isnt it? Slow early, slow late, jockey commented negatively, worked like a pig first work after.

Tracks are slower. What that means to me is the strip was scalding Wood day. I just dont think most of the horses entered took advantage of it. But you have to admit, even the New York Bred Slow Rats motored early. Foggy is the question mark to me. But he ran different. Maybe he was off, maybe he rated better than he has.