derby line

[mikemd]

i made an early derby line.  my line is (first).  wsex.com line is [second].     things will change once posts are drawn and i  update my track model for cd.  i generally don\'t play ky tracks, so my model is a little generic.

afleet alex (11/1) [9/2]
andromedas hero (70/1) [40/1]
bandini (15/1) [5/1]
bellamy road (5/1) [8/5]
buzzards bay (25/1) [30/1]
closing arguement (90/1) [30/1]
coin silver (25/1) [25/1]
consolidator (60/1) [20/1]
don\'t get mad (35/1) [15/1]
flower alley (15/1) [30/1]
giacomo (30/1) [22/1]
going wild (99/1) [15/1]
greater good (60/1) [25/1]
greeley\'s galaxy (15/1) [17/1]
high fly (9/1) [8/1]
high limit (6/1) [10/1]
noble causeway (25/1) [13/1]
sort it out (80/1) [35/1]
spanish chestnut (99/1) [-]
sun king (50/1) [17/1]
wilko (35/1) [16/1]

based on that, i would be looking at:
high limit
flower alley

[spa]

Don\'t bet your lunch money......

[gvido]

Neither you nor the website know how to make an odds line.

How much of Afleet Alex are you willing to take at 11-1? LOL

[Wrongly]

Your top 8 account for 100% of the pool, try again!

[BitPlayer]

Gvido and Wrongly -

Not to speak for mikemd, but I think he\'s saying what he\'ll take for odds, not what he\'ll give.  It\'s based on the odds he would require to expect to get 100% of his money back over the long haul.  A track line would build in the takeout, so the expected return would be roughly 85%.  Based on what I think he\'s doing (which is in principle what I do, but I require a 125% return when I make my odds line), mikemd\'s line foots perfectly.

[mikemd]

wrongly,

take another look.  my line is on the left.  it\'s a 100% line.  the line on the right is from wsex.com.  it obviously is not a 100% line.  that\'s how they make money.  but, you would have known that if you read the post.

gvido,

for afleet alex to be a cinch, he would have to be 15/1 on my line.  i think i had him 15/1 for his last race and don\'t get mad at 15/1 for the race on sunday.  both ran pretty good for 15/1. :-)

[edited to remove hastiness]



Post Edited (05-01-05 15:07)