Ill (?)-- On average, these days, we run about 3 1/2 points faster than Ragozin. That\'s generally true at the tracks Ragozin does himself (NYRA and Florida), much less so at the tracks that various other people do-- they have some circuits much faster or slower than we do (to be nice about it). There are also circumstances like 1 and 2 turn split variants (may have had something to do with how they did the Gold Cup), changing track speeds, etc., which go on regularly, and which they ignore. A prime example of this is the 7/27 Sar card where the track was sealed, and it got much slower-- check out the Ragozin sheets for Adieu and Folklore, along with the others that ran in the last two dirt races that day, and see whether what they did in ignoring the change makes sense. We will be returning to that day in the future-- it\'s a great example of the differences in figure making philosophy, dogmatic vs. realistic, with horses that everyone knows, where it\'s obvious.
The upshot being that while the 3 1/2 point difference is an average, there will be plenty of extreme divergences from that due not just to judgment, but overall approach.
The difference in lengths between the two sets of Gold Cup figures is a little over 10. And if you want to see how ridiculous what they did is, don\'t just look at Borrego, look at the whole race-- an entire field of top horses running WAY off their tops.
And as those who have made figures know, you make figures off past figures. Errors multiply themselves.
