Long Version

[HP]

I have some time to kill...hopefully I will get some constructive comments from the \"experts!\"  Heh.

Juv. fillies
I could see how Folklore can back up and still win, but I\'m thinking she WILL back up and she may back up worse because it looks like she will be up front with lots of company (I could be wrong about this...I\'m no pace handicapper!).  I don\'t see any patterns I LOVE here, but I like Knight\'s Templar at the price.  Original Spin looks usable.  Still thinking about...Wild Fit, Ex Caelis and Along the Sea (nice draw) and some of the bombs (Dressed to Kill and Keeneland Kat), but I should probably take it easy here, being a little wary of Folklore running good enough to bust my bubble...

Juv. colts
In general I like to find the 2yo that hasn\'t \"popped\" yet off a nice pair, but there isn\'t too much of that this year (in the fillies either).  I don\'t really like First Samaurai or Henny Hughes.  If Sorcerer\'s Stone is really 10-1 I\'ve got to believe he has a better chance of coming close to pairing that last race than First Samaurai does of throwing another huge number.  Otherwise, Stevie\'s Wonderboy and Private Vow look interesting and...Stream Cat bothers me a little for no good reason.

F&M Turf
Wonder Again seems logical.  Should get a better trip this year but I\'m still concerned.  Negative work notes from Welch on Riskaverse...  Wend and Film Maker look like value.  Megahertz and Intercontinental are tough to take at shorter prices...  Ouija Board will have to be much the best to win...and people are probably going to bet that she is.  Flip Flop bothers me.

Sprint
Even money and he\'s not the fastest horse?  No Fog for me, thanks.  Interesting trainer stats on Battle Won turf to dirt...  I like Lion Tamer a little but I prefer a real sprinter on top.  Have to respect Wildcat\'s last, no brainer use at the M/L price.  Elusive Jazz is a little interesting as is Attila...  Like the Juv. fillies as I will try to beat the favorite, but I don\'t know if I hate Fog enough to REALLY plunge against him...

Mile
I think Artie Schiller and Leroid are going to butt heads.  I would like Valixir, but I\'m hearing he wants it firmer.  Leaves....Singletary looks solid, and Major\'s Cast and Whipper look like nice value.  If the Pletchers are running well I wouldn\'t be averse to using Limehouse a little \"under\" here at 50-1 or so...

Fillies
Ashado is fastest...  I like In the Gold a little; obvious value at M/L.  Sweet Symphony (like her at 10-1) and SSelection (don\'t really like her) both got negative reviews from Welch.  Stellar Jayne is a contender, looms as exotic value killer.

Turf
What isn\'t value here?  Shakespeare and Azamour.  Otherwise, Bago, Ace (leaning against him a little), Better Talk Now, Shirocco and Silverfoot look like overlays.  Still have to decide on English Channel too...  Yeesh.

Classic
Hopefully Flower Alley will butt heads with Saint Liam, although FAlley is not Ghostzapper (at 10 maaaaahhhhhkkkkkssss).  A Bit \'O Gold looks like stone value, as does Suave.  I would probably use Borrego a little on exotics, but I will probably not use RHTen.  

Rip me a new one!  Thanks and good luck.  HP

[richiebee]

HP:

That\'s a great analysis. Concise. My observations:

R! Juv Fillies Dressed to Kill .. was scratched after pre entry

R4   I will make sizeable p4 no LITF. You make a great point. Its hard to pick him, but how much can you send against him? He still looks to have the best 1/4 mile acceleration in the field. I\'m more and more looking to Lifestyle to provide some company for the Fog. His Belmont race (neg 1) was best in his career (off about the same spacing). He\'s an unlikely winner, but maybe he can help the stalkers/closers by applying pressure on LITF.
   
     Will be interesting to see what happens when LITF faces his first true challenge. I would like to see it happen early in the race

    I remember Jan Rushton interviewed Prado and Gilchrist after the Riva Ridge Stk... both said LITF tired a bit over the deep surface (which could easily be souped or scraped Saturday) Of course, that race was at 7/8s.

[HP]

Thanks Richiebee.  I am pretty focused pick three-wise around the sprint myself, mostly because going in other directions, the juveniles and the turf look like budget busters for me (too many horses).  

I also realize I left out Host, who is another head scratcher.  

If I could refine my earlier list of short priced throwouts, as the week has gone on the two I feel most confident throwing out at this point are Leroid and First Samaurai.  

HP

[RICH]

I definitely see PVAL pushing Atillas Storm out of the 2 hole, he will ride the fav into the ground.