second thoughts

[HP]

Juv. fillies -- Knight\'s Templar and Original Spin look good to me as exacta keys.  At 10-1 and up KTemplar is a win bet.  Along the Sea and Diamond Omi look like some value.  Jury still out on Ex Caelis (we\'ll see about 15-1) and Wild Fit (I would probably not use her at 6-1).

Juv. colts -- May have to go deep here.  Sorcerer\'s Stone, Stevie\'s Wonderboy and Private Vow are all value at M/L, especially since two of them are pretty close to the 8/5 fave.  Stream Cat is a potential bomber at 30-1.  Dawn of War may be usable underneath as well.

F&M Turf -- It\'s got to be drying out pretty good today...  I have a feeling Wonder Again will get bet down to 4 or 5-1, and I will probably be more inclined to use her as a \"saver\" under at that price.  Film Maker, Riskaverse and Wend are obviously better value.  I would probably use Riskaverse a little less on top.  Flip Flop and Karen\'s Caper look usable under for me at big prices.  I look forward to seeing Ouija Board to determine how deep I will go against her.

Sprint -- Race looks like it could set up well for Lion Tamer, and if it rains a little I would move him up.  Supposedly LITF looks awfully good.  I\'ve got to believe Wildcat Heir will get hit at the tote.  Battle Won and Attila should remain good values.

Mile --  Major\'s Cast, Valixir, Whipper and Singletary will be square prices and look close to me.  If Biancone wins early I will take a second look at Gorella under...  Limehouse 99-1 under?  Crazy, but he looks ready to run his big number.

Distaff -- Stellar Jayne, Ashado and Sweet Symphony (negative comments) look like most likely winners.  At 20-1 In the Gold is a user and maybe worth a flyer to win.

Turf -- I don\'t know how much more time I will spend trying to figure this one out.  Shirocco, Better Talk Now and Silverfoot (win bet?) should be value.  Nothing wrong with some of the shorter priced horses.  Let see how Pletcher\'s doing viz-a-viz English Channel, just to complicate things.

Classic -- Saint Liam should win, but you have to hope some combo of bad post and early lick could beat him.  A Bit \'O Gold (win bet) and Suave (dutch?) look like big value.  Borrego will get knocked down now and I don\'t know if I\'ll take him at such a short price.  A few of these could get overlooked in the under slots of tris and supers, like Choctaw, Perfect Drift and SShackleton.

That\'s probably it... Back to work.  Good luck to all.  HP

I\'m giving my admiration of Wend a second thought. After looking at the New York Handicap again, it seems pretty clear to me that it was a very slow pace and Bailey gave her a great ride by making a little bit of an early move. She wound up having the jump on Wonder Again and Film Maker as they all FLEW home. I still make her a contender, but I\'m not giving quite as much of the race as I was before reviewing those trips. Plus Beyer came out for her. That\'s got to be a kiss of death. :-)  

[flushedstraight]

most recent second thoughts;

Juv. fillies  & colts; with you on these, faves all look vulnerable, spreading out using pretty much the ones you mentioned; depending on prices keying Original Spin, KTemplar, and/or Ex Caelis and then SWonderboy and/or Private Vow.

F&M Turf; ditto again, taking the wait & see

Sprint; I expect to be reading next week how this race came up light and how LITF had an easy race. I subscribe to the school of thought that believes he just makes them look easy because he\'s flat-out better, and this applies to the BC as well. Maybe I\'m missing out on a good opportunity here, but I\'ve been in awe since the Sunshine Millions (had Sanatana Strings that day) and he\'s done nothing since to change that feeling, and I hate mixing feeling and betting. Skip.

Mile; Really wanted firm for this one. It seems there\'s a general agreement that Artie S was better last year. His TGs say different. Price? Will end up using all the Euros and Singletary. What is that, like 7 horses? Hard to skip this one with the ?able big fave.

Distaff; will unleash 80% of my bankroll on this one if the morning line is any reflection of post time odds. I\'m expecting an Azeri-like race from Stellar Jayne & thought she\'d be 5-2 here. She ran a new top in the BC last year (at this distance), why not a new one here? Will have the lead & rail (enough races up to this point on big sandy to evaluate any biases, pro or con) while being chased by slower stalkers. Slight worry about Pletcher using Capeside Lady as rabbit for Ashado, who I expect to be sitting off a faster pace than her last. She didn\'t care for the pace in the bad Toga race and looks over the top here like a few recent Beldame champs in the BC. She\'ll be overbet and a throwout, and could single handedly ruin my day if she \"upsets\" at 2-1. Will key SJayne using Society Selection, Happy Ticket, & In The Gold in the 2 & 3 slots with the entire field (66 bets) & save with exactas using all four of those and SJ-all wheel both ways... and a fat win bet!

Turf; ditto... Shirocco at 25-1? Better Talk Now at 10-1? you steal my notes?

Classic; Lots o Gold keyed in triples under Liam, with small saver win/place (40-1?) & maybe Gold in exactas wheeled with the field. An uninspiring classic (1999 redux)

and then... buying or crying.

best of luck all

[HP]

I just read through a bunch of Euro slanted stuff on sportinglife.com and I would recommend a visit there.  Interesting tidbits.

Man that guy Oxx is talking down Azanour.  This whole \"soft ground\" thing is starting to make my eyes glaze over.  Still, he is not saying the kinds of things you like to hear from a 4-1 shot in a competitive field.  Is he trying to drive up his price?  Or is he a striaght shooter?

I did not realize Ouija Board (and Azanour for that matter) were injured this year.  Somewhat tempered by reassuring comments from Bailey re: Ouija.  

They don\'t seem high on the dirt runners, except for some slight enthusiasm for Ivan Denisovich.

Interesting for those not already overloaded.

HP

[johndrj]

Folklore and Lukas peaking......

Private View on the improve, great postt/staling style

Megahertz will run by them all, decent pace setup here as well

Wildcat Hier has enough speed to stay close and enough kick to get by

Artie Shiller not as talented a s Singletary but has a good draw, likes BEL, and doesn\'t need to ship cross  country, shipping to Lone Star was alot easier

Happy Ticket will not need to run down Ashado after that one coasted, pace pressure for her turns the tables

Ace ran a HUGE race 1st time in this country, adds the hood and could be the first one to make the move on Better Talk Nows rabbit

Borrego has arrived