Richiebee -
The difference between our approaches is basically the difference between the runs-based stats and the TG-figure-based stats that TG presents for trainers. Since my handicapping approach is to try to figure out the range in which each horse will run, use that to establish an odds line building in some level of profit for me, and then compare that with the odds offered by the tote, the TG-figure-based approach seems to fit my needs better.
One issue with the runs-based approach is that the data you compile reflects field sizes and (if you are looking at ROI) betting patterns. If either of those has changed between the time your data was collected and the time you are using the data to handicap a race, you\'ll be misled. On the other hand, if form cycles have changed (possibly due to use of steroids or other medications), we\'ll both be misled.
A further issue with the data-gathering approach you propose (other than it being a lot of work) is that the pattern the winner has is not necessarily the pattern noted on its TG sheet. Many horses fail to fall into one of TG\'s narrowly-defined patterns becaue of layoffs or distance or surface changes (in which case I think TG gives you the stats that would apply absent these changes). If you want to include those winners in your data set, you have to define even more patterns.
