Early Breeders Cup Thoughts

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo

In your scenario, where do you put My Typhoon? Pressing Dancing Edie?

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

yea, i can\'t believe i typed that in Jim ...

and after last year\'s f&m, i just might have to make pace a big part of my analysis.

i had film maker on top n boxed with OB.

haven\'t looked too closely at this year\'s yet, but ...

WaW\'s 49% to pair, 28% to top - best pattern of all pre-entrants. the \'3\' at the weights might even get it done, assuming gomez saves the ground. issue is the final 1/8 i guess, but she\'s bred to go all day.

FM looks solid. trip the issue, as it was last year.

OB obviously solid. not only trip, but low odds the worries.

more work to do ...

[jimbo66]

NC Tony,

You are right, My Typhoon might press the lead as well, leaving Wait a While 3rd.  Either way, I don\'t expect a hot pace, which would string out the field and allow for Ouija Board to get a nicer trip (see, I factored \"pace\" in, without blasphemy).  But seriously, the strung out fields and faster paces do allow for closers to get better trips and I don\'t see that in this race.

Michael,

I don\'t see making a big win bet on wait A while.  You and I have talked, I hate chalk (much more than you do!!).  However, I don\'t mind singling Wait a While, at around 3-1 in the pick-4, because I don\'t like favorites in any of the other three legs.  I think the Juvy colts and fillies are both wide open, and I think that although Henny Hughes is formidable, i can play others in that race that are prices (although Commentator was one of them and is now dropped out).

I am contemplating the late pick 4 now, as I can\'t decide whether to play against Bernardini or not.  There is certainly money to be made betting against him, but I am not sure I can play against him with any kind of conviction.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

Here is what will happen..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1H0ZfbMSpg&mode=related&search=

I hope this link works

NC Tony

[Wrongly]

Jerry how does this change alter the Thoro-Patern percentages?

[P.Eckhart]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Wait A While sits the perfect trip, one
> length off of Dancing Edie, as they go the first
> half in 49.4.  At the 3/4 mile mark Gomez eases
> her off the rail and she effortlessly gains on
> Dancing Edie, while not being asked.  Gomez waits
> and waits and waits, and then finally asks her on
> the far turn and she spurts away into a 23.1 final
> quarter and is well clear of the field.  Ouija
> Board, having drawn an outside post and getting a
> very wide trip, closes well, but doesn\'t make the
> exacta, as she had too much to do late.  


Ouija Board was 2 heads 3rd, coming home in 21.8secs in Honkers QEII Cup
She was -1.5L 3rd in the worlds premiere turf race run in 6.5s under par
She was -2L in the fastest Japan Cup ever and JCups are tarmac quick.

And that\'s just her losing speed! ;-D

[jimbo66]

Paul,

I understand those closing fractions are fast, but comparing closing fractions from races overseas to here, doesn\'t work (at least for me).  Even our \"slow paced\" races, are relatively quickly paced, compared to Europe.  

But, I do want Ouija Board to draw outside, just in case......

[jbelfior]

Anyone have any doubts about the possibilities of at least an honest pace in the F/M Turf after MY TYPHOON worked :59 yesterday. No doubt that jock will be sending.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[shanahan]

totally agree, but the Dist will be MT\'s undoing...

[marcus]

mt\'s not impossible but that fragile pattern is just hanging in there - a really Big price  might be incentive enough + a few in there seem to be sitting on peak efforts so mt would need the top ...

[miff]

All BC post positions drawn and no really bad draws for most of the contenders. Check out bloodhorse.com

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey what the .......

No one said a word about this one.

it\'s a bute!!

NC Tony

[P.Eckhart]

Pletcher says this horse\'s job is to be as a rabbit, but does he really mean as a snail?

Is his job to make the front then slow the race down to 25 and change pace so English Channel can sprint out a finish with Cacique. Or, is he seriously intending Icy to be a genuine G1 pacemaker, which would play into the hands of the european horses.

[jbelfior]

Probably looking for him to go quick enough to spread the field enough so that they won\'t bunch up going into the final turn.

I\'m thinking he wants to sit the rail and come through as soon as Icy Atlantic lets him through. See his trip at Monmouth (United Nations). That\'s probably the trip they are envisioning for EC and with the hope that CACIQUE will have to go wide.


Good Luck,
Joe B.