Question for Jerry - Dead Rail on Turf in San Marcos?

[bobphilo]

Jerry, after watching last Sunday’s San Marcos at SA, I was wondering if you can give a dead rail designation to turf races when a soggy rail due to rain is not the cause?
In the San Marcos, with the track listed as firm, the 2 favorites finished 4th and 8th after inside trips, while the top 2 finishers were longshots who made big moves on the outside following wide trips. It seemed the other turf races that day followed the same pattern.
The question is; was this due to a dead rail or is it just a characteristic of turf races that are usually won with late moves, frequently from the outside?

Bob

[TGAB]

JB is in Las Vegas for the contest so he may not get to this for a while. From my vantage point the favorite was an older horse off a top and the 2nd choice was no better than several others in there. And as a matter of fact, the 2nd choice ran right back to his figure. Seems to me the track played fair and true.

[bobphilo]

I looked at the TG figures for the race and you\'re right, the horses apparently did run to form. I was using the Beyers and odds to predict the horses performances (they got it wrong) as well as which path the winners took.

I guess the best way to determine a bias on grass is not just looking where most of the winners come from but just looking at how the inside and outside horses are running in relation to their figures. I quess it helps to have accurate figures too. LOL

Thanks for the explanation.

Bob