Michael,
If the \"0\" is really ugly then an 0-1 or 0-2 or 0-3 (any subsequent effort) may very well point to an \"X\" next out. Of course, it all depends on many other factors but it is usually a good pattern to bet against since often such horses are low-priced favorites.
Often (and I am not sure why) such horses then come back to throw in another good effort but it is usually the last one for a while (it is not a good pattern long term).
A great example was in the ROTW this week. In Dig For It\'s 6yo year he ran a very ugly top in May then showed the 0-2-X followed by another good race equal to his top, and then it took almost a year to get back to it again.
Another good example in the same race was Macaneo. He showed an 0-3 heading into the Gold Cup and then X\'d.
In the same race Dollar Bill showed an 0-1 heading into the Gold Cup and probably X\'d but his top could have been considered healthy and I did not really consider it the same when I looked at the race although Dollar Bill looked weak to me for some other reasons.
I hope that helps. I don\'t think there is anything magical about the \"2\" part but I could be wrong.
The important thing is was the top \"ugly\" or \"healthy\" or something in between and was the next race also an effort (I would say anything within 3 pts of the top that is also a secondary top). That is a weak next-race betting pattern (and a weak longer-term pattern) but could present a betting opportunity immediately following the X.
Hope that helps.
I would be interested in hearing some other opinions on this one.
Chris
