Why I hate the rug

[miff]

BRAD FREE

\"If the Grade 1 speedball Sinister Minister is something more just than a one-hit wonder, then he will return to form Thursday in the seventh-race feature at Hollywood Park.

Unfortunately for Sinister Minister, racing has changed the past 14 months. Gone is the Keeneland dirt on which he won the 2006 Blue Grass Stakes by more than 12 lengths. Gone are year-round speed-friendly dirt tracks in California, the type on which Sinister Minister\'s wicked speed once was an invaluable asset.

Instead, Sinister Minister must try to carry his speed on the synthetic Cushion Track surface at Hollywood. Good luck to him. Because while early pace is not necessarily a liability, it certainly is not the weapon it once was on conventional dirt tracks\"



I think Brad Free said it as well as it can be put. The most potent weapon a handicapper/bettor once had at his disposal has been substantailly reduced,big early gas!

Mike

[bobphilo]

That\'s precisely the reason I love poly. Advantage to to those that know how use what is now a more potent handicapping angle - finding the best horse rather than just adding ones in the horse\'s running line.

Bob

[P-Dub]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'s precisely the reason I love poly. Advantage
> to to those that know how use what is now a more
> potent handicapping angle - finding the best horse
> rather than just adding ones in the horse\'s
> running line.
>
> Bob

What \"angle\" do you use to find the \"best horse\"?? Thats kind of a silly statement Bob.

Finding lone speed isn\'t as simplistic as merely adding up ones. Those that handicap for speed know this. They also can pay very well.

[miff]

Bob,

Don\'t know where you are coming from.Speed has been the name of the game since the beginning of racing, thats why they have stopwatches.Robbing horses of their natural speed is an inane way to manage the game.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I have a far different view of Polyscam.

Polyscam takes horses of significantly different ability and brings them closer together. A good horse will win against an inferior horse by a length at six furlongs, but run a mile and an eighth the superior horse will win by seven lengths. In that illustration Distance reinforces the one horse\'s superiority. As a further illustration I\'d point to Easy Goers Belmont. CtC: \"Eventually, all things merge into one and Easy Goer runs through it.\"

What Polyscam does is take a mile and an eighth race and reduces the 7 length advantage to a 1 length advantage at that distance. It merges the horses.

Consequently, traffic and poor luck play a bigger role because the margins of superiority are reduced. Thus, handicapping acumen is far less of a separating factor among the betting public because the horses themselves are not separated sufficiently to be taken advantage of by the best handicappers.

Which each poly race its closer to pulling the arm on a slot machine or rolling the dice than it is to firing accurately at a target clearly ascertained.

Poly is like a Casino devoid of a thoroughbred room. That is not said in jest.

. P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bobphilo Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > That\'s precisely the reason I love poly.
> Advantage
> > to to those that know how use what is now a
> more
> > potent handicapping angle - finding the best
> horse
> > rather than just adding ones in the horse\'s
> > running line.
> >
> > Bob
>
> What \"angle\" do you use to find the \"best horse\"??
> Thats kind of a silly statement Bob.
>
> Finding lone speed isn\'t as simplistic as merely
> adding up ones. Those that handicap for speed know
> this. They also can pay very well.

[slewzapper]

It sounds like you\'ve just described turf racing, so I suppose you feel the same way about handicapping that surface.

Start making vacation plans for the end of October 2008.

In time, angles shall be revealed to all those who are open to enlightenment. Adapt or die. Perhaps the figuremakers have enough data by now to start linking the dots.

In the meantime, protect thy bankroll - NY bred maidens, over and over and over again...hey, how come decent dirt races don\'t fill anymore?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think there is an angle in Polyscam. The angle is that since the horses are merged, its silly to take short odds on a favorite and you can reach out for longer odds horses with an understanding though inferior they may find an acorn. The only problem is that is not handicapping and won\'t result in positive ROI.

As for the coming Poly, one option is to not wager upon it and I rarely do. I\'m near Arlington Park and won\'t attend this year and won\'t wager upon it.

And correct, I rarely wager on Turf racing. Exceptions being chasing a pick six, Breeders Cup and horses moving to Turf which I believe are pedigreed for it.

NY Bred Maiden Claiming Slow Rats are interesting, but MSW races are fun.



slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It sounds like you\'ve just described turf racing,
> so I suppose you feel the same way about
> handicapping that surface.
>
> Start making vacation plans for the end of October
> 2008.
>
> In time, angles shall be revealed to all those who
> are open to enlightenment. Adapt or die. Perhaps
> the figuremakers have enough data by now to start
> linking the dots.
>
> In the meantime, protect thy bankroll - NY bred
> maidens, over and over and over again...hey, how
> come decent dirt races don\'t fill anymore?

[fkach]

\"Polyscam takes horses of significantly different ability and brings them closer together.\"

IMO it\'s a matter of pace. The average pace is slower on Poly. If horses run slow early, the differences in their ability can only be demonstated in the latter part of the race when they are all trying.

The Bluegrass was a perfect example of this because it was so extreme.

Even a horse like Teufelsburg can finish close to elite horses in a 3F sprint. But if the pace demands are significant, inferior horses like him are hurt worse by it (see the Derby).

Imagine yourself running in a 1 mile race against world class milers where YOU are the pace setter and no one passes you until the top of the stretch. Then you all sprint home. You\'d lose, but it wouldn\'t be badly. Now imagine they are setting the pace and you are forced to stay with them. There\'s a pretty good chance you might not even finish the race because their 1/4 and 1/2 mile times would be so extreme for you relative to them.

This kind of thing happens every day, but it\'s less clear in most races because the paces are less extreme. It happens way more often on turf and now poly. That\'s why the finishes are often so tight.

[miff]

There is another aspect to poly as told to me by several trainers.Horses tire more on poly the further they go, which is also the case on dirt, but not as much. This probably goes to the fact that poly is kinder to the horses body but does not return the same energy as dirt tracks.It also confirms that horses with early speed are not faring as well as on the former dirt tracks.


Chuck,

I am surprised to hear that you are not a fan of grass racing. I think it\'s really a place to find good spots and the data seems stronger than on dirt.

Mike

[fkach]

Miff,

\"There is another aspect to poly as told to me by several trainers.Horses tire more on poly the further they go, which is also the case on dirt, but not as much\"

I agree with you. I think that\'s why the average paces are slower. We all like to complain about jockeys, but they do adjust their riding to maximize their chances of winning when it becomes obvious that a certain style is not working.

[cubfan0316]

they ride the way the trainers tell them.

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>> Chuck,
>
> I am surprised to hear that you are not a fan of
> grass racing. I think it\'s really a place to find
> good spots and the data seems stronger than on
> dirt.
>
> Mike


Couldn\'t agree more on both counts. TG data really shines on the turf.