Thanks Alan + Question for Jerry

[fkach]

Speed figures are supposed to adjust for differences in surfaces that cause differences in time. Visually, it look to me like lots of horses are struggling with the Del Mar surface late in races. I don\'t think that should be reflected in their figures though. It\'s something for owners, trainers, jockeys, handicappers, and track managements to think about.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

As I have stated quite a few times, I think poly sucks, especially the poly tracks at Delmar and Keenland.  Of course the horses are obviously coming back exhausted and the times are ridiculously slow.  If Jerry and other TG users are doing well betting poly, than they are much better than me, because the few times i have tried to use the TG figures this summer at delmar, I have come away extremely frustrated at how the hollywood figures don\'t hold up at all at delmar.  (limited sample - I have only bet may 8 cards)

But Miff, I guess I don\'t understand your point.  Suppose a horse runs a six furlong race at Saratoga, and runs in 1:10 flat, which works out to a TG figure of \"3\".  Then the horse goes and runs on poly and runs \"his race\" relative to the others in the field and the track variant that day.  Visually, he staggers through the stretch and runs in 1:13 and all that energy loss you talk about occurs.  However, relative to the other horses in the race that day, he runs the same race at Delmar.  I want him to get the \"3\" again, despite how bad it looks and how slow on the clock it is, and how much energy he uses up.  I am pretty sure that the main reason we use speed figures is to equalize the effects of surfaces.  

You want Jerry to give him a much slower figure because he used more energy and ran a slower time?  Or am I misunderstanding your argument?

[miff]

Jim,

Misunderstanding,forget raw time.

Example, good dirt horses cannot usually match their normal DIRT  performances on turf. They just perform \"faster\"on dirt, their preferred surface.Same going the other way with turf runners performing better than they do on dirt.

Polytrack is a third surface made of polypropylene fibers, recycled rubber and sand coated wax. Distinctly different from dirt or turf.

What then says that this same dirt runner mentioned above CAN perform as well on del mar POLY?How does one conclude that most animals with a preference for one surface over another, can in fact match their par performances on Del MAR POLY, a third new surface.

A large population of runners have preference for one surface or another and rarely \"perform\" equally on both.

Hope that explains what I was trying to infer.

Regards,
Mike

[alm]

I can\'t comment on the issue of comparable numbers between dirt and grass racing, but there is a larger historical issue that might explain why European horses are actually better on the grass.

The biggest stables in Europe, led by the Arabs who race there, started buying the very best stallions active in the US during the 80\'s (and a little before and after that decade.)  There were some sales at which they seemed to buy EVERY Northern Dancer horse and broodmare available.

They sucked the juice out of US breeding in general and turf breeding by default.  The Japanese also stepped in in a big way and might have pulled down the next tier of great stallions.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the key points for me in betting Del Mar are to focus on horses that have run well over poly (not cushion), or run mediocre and are second time over the track, or (very important) are training there, not someplace else. We would have not tried what we did with SC if he had not already run well over poly.

It\'s also important to note that those who play DMR for a living rely on other information, not just TG. Specifically, there are very good workout services in California that give you a good idea as to how horses are handling poly in the morning. You have to treat it as a surface unto itself-- grass and dirt horses are equally likely to handle it.

[basket777]

whats the name of the workout service and a phone number?

[TGJB]

I was using someone else\'s and I don\'t have a phone number. He was using Harrington, available online, and pretty cheap, I think.

[Frank]

The report is bought through www.nationalturf.com. Daily, monthly & annual plans are available. Next day\'s report is only available after 7:00PM Pacific. Excellent products especially for lightly raced horses and first time starters.

Frank

[jstrcehors]

Del Mar has two tracks. The morning track and the afternoon track.Few if any trainers have any idea how well their horses will run in the afternoon.(on the poly). Horses who train fantastic in the morning run horrible in the afternoon.It was interesting to watch a few horses ship from Arlington to run. Both horses had run well in Chicago. But were eased over this track at short prices.One pattern has come to the surface as the meeting winds down. Horses who have had a race over the track have been much improved.