ROTW

[Michael D.]

5 Baroness Thatcher (ml 6-1) -

got down to a \'1\' last summer at today\'s distance of 7f; three difficult trips since. training well. gets in light. JR stalks Shaggy Mane and Featherbed, runs by in the stretch, and holds off the favorite late.

BT the key.

[Sandreadis]

Thoro-Graph ROTW selection: Shaggy Mane
Len Ragozin analysis key  : Featherbed

Who gets next weeks bragging rights??

[TGJB]

There\'s always a chance the SM doesn\'t fire, since she\'s done that before, in which case Featherbed could finish ahead of her. But the question isn\'t that, it\'s who has a better chance of winning relative to the odds, and I disagree pretty strongly with Len\'s pick-- first she has to run to a number that she\'s only run once in her life, then that number\'s got to be good enough (unlikely in itself).

Don\'t think he would make that pick off our data, have to assume the race looks a lot different on their\'s.

[Lost Cause]

Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thoro-Graph ROTW selection: Shaggy Mane
> Len Ragozin analysis key  : Featherbed
>
> Who gets next weeks bragging rights??


Keep in mind everyone that Florida Derby day means this track will be lightning quick and I believe the rail and speed is usually golden on these days.  Which is another plus for Shaggy Mane.  At first look it seems like Sugar Swirl will sit the trip behind Featherbed and Shaggy Mane and run them over even with the weight but becuase the track will be souped up, Shaggy Mane might have another advantage besides the weight.  If there does not seem to be a speed advantage I will not play against Sugar Swirl.

 How does Ragozin justify FeatherBed??  Can\'t see him at all..Either he gets cooked on the lead or he stalks and gets swallowed up by a closer..that horse can\'t pass anybody in the stretch...

[ronwar]

Interesting, I read their patterns totally different.  I saw both Shaggy Mane and Barones Thatcher being her by their tops, which I think would be considered fast for 3 yo fillies.  SM ran hers back in January and only ran 5 more times the whole year. BT didn\'t look to hot in return for pennies on the dollar, although the trouble is noted, she seems to find trouble.  This one looks chalky to me with Sugar Swirl looking awfully tough and Moon Catcher with the best chance of knocking off the top one.

[fkach]

I\'d have a really tough time coming up with Featherbed in this race.  She likes to race on the lead and IMO won\'t get it today. A case can be made that she\'s set for a top effort, but that\'s far from certain.

To me, Shaggy Mane looks much more likely to fire her \"A\" race first time Dutrow. Plus, she\'s had some reasonable excuses for her recent efforts. The one problem I have with her is the 7F. I think she can probably get 7F, but perhaps not after being pressured hard in the early/middle part of the race and then trying to hold off other quality horses. Featherbed will probably try to pressure her early (but IMO won\'t be fast enough), but I believe a horse like Sugar Swirl has enough middle speed to offer a significant challenge at some point. If I bet SM, I\'d be hoping the \"Dutrow Magic\" kicked in at around the 1/8th pole. ;-)

There are a couple pf other horses in here that have enough back ability to win in this spot if they are close to ready for a top effort and it gets a little hot up front (BT, MC)

I really don\'t like this race for betting purposes unless the board winds up a lot different than I suspect.

[miff]

\"How does Ragozin justify FeatherBed?? Can\'t see him at all..Either he gets cooked on the lead or he stalks and gets swallowed up by a closer..that horse can\'t pass anybody in the stretch\"

Lost,

You might be surprised to know that sheet \"pattern readers\"like Friedman have almost no regard for race shape/pace, etc.It\'s obvious that Featherbed is most effective on the lead which she does not figure to get, but no matter,thats the way they play.With racing random always in possible play,sometimes dumb is better!

Mike