Race Shapes

[drbillym]

Interesting concept and presentation which I am not yet sure how I will use.  But perhaps to detect lone speed, and will try Ferragamo, 9/2 M/L in the 7th at OP.

[pj]

I also picked out Ferragamo immediately. The 5 lengths stick out like a sore thumb! Hopefully, we get 9-2.

   pat

[bobphilo]

Another possible use would be how Jerry said he used it in the Florida Derby. They indicated that Big Brown had enough early speed to clear all but one horse from his outside post before the turn.  
Then there\'s the angle of improved early food in last race signaling a horse rounding into form.

Bob

[DaveDuggan]

Very good idea, Jerry.

What about, in some way, also including adjusted late speed? Specially in turf races it would have been very useful information, in my opinion!

[miff]

JB,

Only because it was not mentioned, I\'ll assume the different run up distances are included in the formula.


Mike

[fkach]

I really like the presentation. Having the visual in addition to the numbers was a great idea.

[elkurzhal]

Very interesting, I wouldn\'t be shocked if they quickly become the most widely used pace numbers.  Could have made a fortune with them a few years back at Keeneland I would think.

I have two comments about the format.
- What are the two numbers after the conditions?
- Would it be possible to keep the same format for sprint/routes as the sheets?  Meaning the Turf races would look like --22.81s, routes 22.81s, & sprints 22.81s.

[TGJB]

Miff-- short answer is yes, but it\'s complicated. If they pull a major switch in run-up distance somewhere we could get nailed for a while.

You and others have often posted about the figures at a circuit being out of line. I\'m very interested in hearing those comments about this product-- the regular figures are made and reviewed by people, the adjusted fractions are computer generated. If you see something like \"the horses coming out of the 6f races at LRL aren\'t running to their figures\", please let me know in an email, not here. You too, fkach.

[TGJB]

George did those 2 figures on his own, I think they are post and position at first call. The sprint/route thing is interesting, we\'ll do that when George gets back.

[Michael D.]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting concept and presentation which I am
> not yet sure how I will use.  But perhaps to
> detect lone speed, and will try Ferragamo, 9/2 M/L
> in the 7th at OP.


Ferragamo opens at 3-5.

2nd dam is the dam of Left Bank.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

When the TG Form Ratings that you sell through Equibase first came to light, I read the description of them on Equibase and noted that the Ratings are adjusted for post positions.  I assumed then that you were using some algorithm to estimate probable ground loss.  Have you been using the Race Shapes data as part of that algorithm?  If so, do you have any comments on how it has performed?

[TGJB]

No, we just developed the Race Shapes and are not using them with the Form Ratings. We are just using a straight correction for each post out, slightly higher for 2 turn races.