Cal Derby Horses

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah, the wide was a part of it, but I do believe Z Fortune will reverse on both Gayego and Pyro on Derby Day. All I\'m really looking to do is fill in spots 3 and 4.

I am proud to be a member of the \"Anti California\" contingent.


miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"The best horse in the Arkansas Derby was Z
> Fortune\".
>
>
>
>
> ...now, now Chuck, don\'t tell me you drank the
> Kool Aid. Gayego was the best horse in the ARK
> derby and did ALL the running, Z Fortune got a
> better fig being wide.Watch the replay carefully
> focusing on:
>
> 1. Gayego, involved in the ENTIRE race including a
> very fast pace and holding Z. Fortune safe the
> entire stretch.
>
> 2. Z Fortune,floated wide on the first turn, a
> perfect relaxed pocket app 6th, down the
> backside(while Gayego is mixing it up), a nice bid
> running after an embattled Gayego, wide off the
> turn, and held safe.
>
> Better fig, Z Fortune, better race Gayego. Just in
> case you missed it.Both not without a longshots
> chance in the big dance.
>
>
> Mike

[fkach]

>I hope one of my offshore accounts offers a Gayego-Z Fortune matchup bet, because I would unload on that in favor of Z Fortune. <

I agree with miff.

I don\'t think sitting 2nd stalking a cheap speed in a fast pace is a good trip. It depends how fast the pace was. Rabbits by definition are almost always cheap speed, but they often do their job.  

In any event, I think a matchup bet is an entirely different proposition than determining who the best horse is. Gayego is much more likely to be forced to mix it up with a superior horse like Big Brown (and perhaps other stalkers) at some point. That in turn could easily lead to him running a very good race but tiring and finishing mid pack because of his early efforts. A horse like Z fortune is more likely to sit back and suck up into a decent finish regardless of the pace.

A scenario like that could easily mean that Gayego is the better horse, but Z Fortune is the favorite over him in a heads up bet.

That kind of thing is almost ALWAYS built into the odds for headups match bets because the odds makers understand that the probabilities of winning/being the best horse and the probabilities of finishing in front of another horse are not perfectly correlated.

[miff]

Chuck,

Re Pyro, why would you dismiss a horse for one dull performance(for 3rd and 4th pl) unless you think/read/know that he\'s hurting. You do realize that his internals(acceleration splits) are in the top 3 of all the potential entrants.

There was a rumor about his feet being hot which I could not confirm anywhere. An Asmussen assistant in NY told me that Pyro was perfect out of the BG, who knows.

Mike

[fkach]

Jimbo,

I am not certain about the TG figures on Poly/Synth because I haven\'t seen enough of them (I don\'t bet much synthetic. I see the Beyers in the DRF and see others also), but in general it appears that most speed figures on synthetic are compressed in a similar way to turf as you suggest.  The top horses get slower figures and the bottom horses get faster figures than their dirt counterparts.

If you want the explanation, contact me privately. It\'s at least partially a pace issue and I can demonstrate it quite clearly.  

Several people I know are working with synth to dirt adjustments. I think that\'s a better approach than doing nothing at all because you don\'t want to  underate the best \"versatile sythetic\" horses when they switch to dirt and vice versa. However, since it\'s a pace issue, paying closer attention to the fractions can actually give you a better idea of which horses are more likely to move up and by how much.

[smalltimer]

One more thing about poly/sythn and I\'ll drop the subject.
It\'s \"possible\" some of the insanity about how these surfaces play is related to the maintenance of the track.
Depending on the circuit and the weather conditions, most dirt tracks are gonna harrow after every race.  With the poly/synth tracks they are tending to cross-harrow every 3 races.  
With that cross-harrowing comes the opening up of the plastic and ingredients, creates more open air, and may or may not change the kick back.  It stands to reason a calm day or a windy day may have some influence on how 1-2-3 or even the whole program runs, some days it may slow the surface down, others it may keep it the same or make it quicker.  I\'ve never done a study on it, but it might be interesting to separate some Keeneland/SA programs and see what the time variants are.  Frankly, I don\'t know if there\'s any impact on the maintenance, but it could play a role?
It may explain, in a small way, why those surfaces are so sporadic from race to race, day to day and week to week. It may mean nothing.  (Required disclaimer).
Just throwing it out there guys.  I have no strong opinion either way.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff,

I\'m just not a big Pyro backer. I don\'t like a great deal about him. From his race times to his pedigee.

First and Foremost, I don\'t like his back figures. To my eye, he\'s slow early and light on final figure. I don\'t like his BC Juvenile figure and I don\'t think his Louisana Derby figure is what is said either.

He\'s a \"3\" horse, and in this era, I don\'t bet 3-horses heading into the Derby.

Is he hurt? I have no information on that. I\'ve heard rumors, but I\'m not paying much attention to them. I don\'t like him from what I can discern. That said, he threw a stinker in at Keeneland and if he\'s not hurt, it hurts him on foundation because he\'s lightly pedigreed and has shown nothing more to me than a milers closing kick. Remember Arazi? Came running at Churchill and flattened the latter part of the race? At least that one\'s big BJ Juvey was at Churchill if I recall correctly.

Does Pyro possibly, remotely, have a clunk up chance for the Super or Trifecta?....Maybe, I\'m deliberating. I\'d hate to get beat because he got on the right part of the track and caught a fortunate pace scenario. But, I have to say my inclination is to toss him completely at what I figure to be 2nd or 3rd choice.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Re Pyro, why would you dismiss a horse for one
> dull performance(for 3rd and 4th pl) unless you
> think/read/know that he\'s hurting. You do realize
> that his internals(acceleration splits) are in the
> top 3 of all the potential entrants.
>
> There was a rumor about his feet being hot which I
> could not confirm anywhere. An Asmussen assistant
> in NY told me that Pyro was perfect out of the BG,
> who knows.
>
> Mike

[miff]

\"He\'s a \"3\" horse, and in this era, I don\'t bet 3-horses heading into the Derby\"


Chuck,

I posted this before.You must consider that in his first two races this year, the paces were too slow for him( or anyone) to run a big fig,the \"whole\" race came up slow as a result.I\'m surprised you did not notice that fact. Don\'t recall if those races got a sl pace fig or not but they should have, imo.

I\'m always against one run closers, but this field is absent of horses with big late gas and Pyro has it on his normal day.It is valid that he may not kick as hard going longer when he has to race into faster paces, so that remains to be seen.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I fully expect Pyro to run his best race.

I\'m just not overly concerned about it.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"He\'s a \"3\" horse, and in this era, I don\'t bet
> 3-horses heading into the Derby\"
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> I posted this before.You must consider that in his
> first two races this year, the paces were too slow
> for him( or anyone) to run a big fig,the \"whole\"
> race came up slow as a result.I\'m surprised you
> did not notice that fact. Don\'t recall if those
> races got a sl pace fig or not but they should
> have, imo.
>
> I\'m always against one run closers, but this field
> is absent of horses with big late gas and Pyro has
> it on his normal day.It is valid that he may not
> kick as hard going longer when he has to race into
> faster paces, so that remains to be seen.
>
> Mike

[TreadHead]

Can\'t speak for the other ones, but I check the Keeneland site every morning, they are running the tractor 5 or 6 times a day, and keep in mind a couple of the races are on grass. So it is not every 3 races there.

Today\'s for example...

The Gallop Master was used after training and again after races 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 with the tines set at approximately 2.5 inches.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

I have 5 Benjis on Z FORTUNE in Pool#2. The way I\'m going lately (latest beat was RILEY TUCKER not passing SAMBA ROOSTER) I\'m just waiting for the foot problem, hairline fracture, etc.

What is positive about his prep race is something I look at very closely when evaluating the Derby. I love a tough prep where the top 2 gap the remainder of the field.

Examples of runner-ups that ran a close, hard race and gapped the 3rd horse: LIL E TEE, GO FOR GIN, SILVER CHARM, REAL QUIET, GRINDSTONE, MONARCHOS, FUNNY CIDE.


The game isn\'t just about numbers.



Good Luck,
Joe B.