Derby Patterns

[congaree1]

Any chance this board will start talking about the derby? Horses patterns, chances of moving forward, etc. All this bla, bla about Plecther and other trainers using drugs. I can assure all that TAP is not dead. He won 30% of his races at Keeneland and is around 24% for the year, pretty good for a dead guy. Talking about this kind off crap is useless and wasted time!!

[spa]

Agree with the crap statement. If Colonel John black letters before the race,he\'s my horse

[richiebee]

Congaree:

You really think we should be talking Derby Patterns? I mean wouldn\'t you
rather discuss a 4/5 overlay at Penn National one week before the Derby?

I will try to discuss a couple of horses I have been looking at this evening
without discussing proprietary information which I have been having trouble
downloading. Apparently I have tried to download the preview package in excess
of two times from the same IP address, and access is being denied.

I guess the TG gang got wind of my plan to download hundreds of copies of the
TGs and going over to the Very Old Ukranian Sailor\'s Hall and try to convert
Raggies.

I did transcribe some TGs onto a copy of the DRF PPs, so I can proceed.

ADRIANO: If you throw out his Fountain of Youth, this seems to be a colt who is
developing steadily. Unfortunately, if you throw out his FOY, you have thrown
out his only dirt race. In the FOY, Adriano broke from Death Valley, and was
steadied into the first turn according to DRF.

Adriano is a May foal, but has raced exclusively in 2 turn events throughout
his career and has a seasoning/stamina edge on a lot of the runners in the
Derby, most notably your likely post time favorite. His pedigree (AP Indy/ Mr.
P. mare) gives this one some appeal even with the uncertainty connected to his
lack of experience on dirt.

COOL COAL MAN: Liked him until I saw the TG numbers. Part of the reason I had
liked him was that he had thrown in a good race at CD as a 2YO, but as Jimbo
pointed out he was dull at CD 3 weeks later. Looking at his TGs and trying to
perceive a pattern, it looks like a \"4\" or \"5\" might be the best he can produce
on Derby Day and that not only makes him an unlikely winner, but also an
unlikely gimmick factor.

After CCM\'s race in the Blue Grass, Zito was quoted as saying that \"none\" of
his horses like synthetic surfaces. Why give a colt a last prep on a surface he
will not handle? Did he get anything out of the BG?.

As far as the multiple race wagers and Oaks/ Derby double go, Adriano in, CCM
out.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Adriano has been a tough call for me.

I just looked into his pedigree with the intention of justifying a \"toss\" of Adriano, starting with the principle that Mr. Prospector as a sire or a broodmare sire is a \"watched\" strike down the middle.

What I found makes the decision all the more troubling. Gold Canyon did little, but that one\'s mare was a Santa Anita Oaks winner and out of Golden Treat who foaled a Belmont winner.

I have some coloration theory I\'m not going to get into, but I believe Adriano is picking up coloration from female side horses with big staying power.

Adriano had a work today that on published time was \"acceptable\". Before today, his Churchill works have not been favorable. I\'m searching to hear how he\'s moved over the surface. It will have to be smartly to bring him in, but hes there on pedigree.  

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Congaree:
>
> You really think we should be talking Derby
> Patterns? I mean wouldn\'t you
> rather discuss a 4/5 overlay at Penn National one
> week before the Derby?
>
> I will try to discuss a couple of horses I have
> been looking at this evening
> without discussing proprietary information which I
> have been having trouble
> downloading. Apparently I have tried to download
> the preview package in excess
> of two times from the same IP address, and access
> is being denied.
>
> I guess the TG gang got wind of my plan to
> download hundreds of copies of the
> TGs and going over to the Very Old Ukranian
> Sailor\'s Hall and try to convert
> Raggies.
>
> I did transcribe some TGs onto a copy of the DRF
> PPs, so I can proceed.
>
> ADRIANO: If you throw out his Fountain of Youth,
> this seems to be a colt who is
> developing steadily. Unfortunately, if you throw
> out his FOY, you have thrown
> out his only dirt race. In the FOY, Adriano broke
> from Death Valley, and was
> steadied into the first turn according to DRF.
>
> Adriano is a May foal, but has raced exclusively
> in 2 turn events throughout
> his career and has a seasoning/stamina edge on a
> lot of the runners in the
> Derby, most notably your likely post time
> favorite. His pedigree (AP Indy/ Mr.
> P. mare) gives this one some appeal even with the
> uncertainty connected to his
> lack of experience on dirt.
>
> COOL COAL MAN: Liked him until I saw the TG
> numbers. Part of the reason I had
> liked him was that he had thrown in a good race at
> CD as a 2YO, but as Jimbo
> pointed out he was dull at CD 3 weeks later.
> Looking at his TGs and trying to
> perceive a pattern, it looks like a \"4\" or \"5\"
> might be the best he can produce
> on Derby Day and that not only makes him an
> unlikely winner, but also an
> unlikely gimmick factor.
>
> After CCM\'s race in the Blue Grass, Zito was
> quoted as saying that \"none\" of
> his horses like synthetic surfaces. Why give a
> colt a last prep on a surface he
> will not handle? Did he get anything out of the
> BG?.
>
> As far as the multiple race wagers and Oaks/ Derby
> double go, Adriano in, CCM
> out.

[marcus]

maybe use the fillie eight belles  - get the entire pool for a dollar ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Marcus...

For many races, Eight Belles refused to change leads. You can attribute some of her early losses to that fact. In my research she has begun changing leads at the top of the stretch in some races. I think one of her large wins was still on the off lead. To my eye she is a big filly, but I am still in the research mode with her. I think she has a chance, but if Proud Spell\'s connections pass this Derby they are passing a once in a lifetime opportunity. They need to stop pussy footing around and send them both.

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> maybe use the fillie eight belles  - get the
> entire pool for a dollar ...

[marcus]

I agree , they should send the fillies , imo - a fillie on both ends of the Oaks / Derby  wouldn\'t be too far fetched at all .  Quite a few strong looking Derby contenders are off top efforts in excess of 3 1/2 points and can bounce , while Eight Belles overall and last 4 numbers aren\'t too bad and actually are pretty darn good in my view .

[jimbo66]

Chuckles and Marcus,

What exactly would you base your opinion that Proud Spell should run in the Derbyh on?  

What is the absolute best number you can see Proud Spell running in her next race?  She got down a 3 last year, the early stats show Proud Citizen\'s don\'t develop much from 2 to 3 (small sample, but his offspring are actually slower at 3!!!).  

Can the horse run a \"2\" next time out?  I think so.  In the Oaks that makes her \"one of the ones\", probably not even the favorite.  There are a handful of Derby contenders that have already run \"0\'s\".  With the weight, the \"2\" is a \"1\", but can you really even expect Proud Spell to run the \"2\" at a 1 1/4, against the boys?  Probably not.  

So, even if she pairs her top, she is likely off the board.  Or, she can be one of the top 3 contenders in the Oaks.  Not a tough choice.

Eight Belles is a different story. She has run four straight races that if you adjust for her being a filly, has her at the \"0\" level.  I still say \"bounce\" next time out, whether she runs against the fillies or colts, but that is a little bit based on my visual analysis of her last race.  But on raw number power, she would be the most consistently fast horse in the Derby.  Big Brown is certainly faster, on his best, but Eight Belles has 4 figures in a very fast range, something which NONE of the colts have.  So, can\'t blame them for taking a shot.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jimbo, shes going to the Oaks.

I liked her Fairground Oaks race against Indian Blessing. She was closer to the pace and finished in faster time than Pyro. She obviously didn\'t relish Poly but ran on anyway and I think got something out of the Ashland. Her pedigree for Churchill really appeals to me. I think its stronger for the distance than Eight Belles. I factored her at about a 1. If Tgraph says its an accurate 2, I\'m further off than I thought and maybe thats why she\'s headed to the Oaks.

I haven\'t been overly enamored with how quickly Eight Belles relaxes after the wire.

The fillies ran a good 5 pole workout today. Right in Colonel John\'s range, but they did not gallop out like he did. He\'s acclimated himself to the surface. Now its a question of the draw and the trip.

By the way, I\'m getting a pretty stern game face. You\'ll be rolling in the dough if Tale of Ekati gets in there and his figure gives him a chance.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles and Marcus,
>
> What exactly would you base your opinion that
> Proud Spell should run in the Derbyh on?  
>
> What is the absolute best number you can see Proud
> Spell running in her next race?  She got down a 3
> last year, the early stats show Proud Citizen\'s
> don\'t develop much from 2 to 3 (small sample, but
> his offspring are actually slower at 3!!!).  
>
> Can the horse run a \"2\" next time out?  I think
> so.  In the Oaks that makes her \"one of the ones\",
> probably not even the favorite.  There are a
> handful of Derby contenders that have already run
> \"0\'s\".  With the weight, the \"2\" is a \"1\", but can
> you really even expect Proud Spell to run the \"2\"
> at a 1 1/4, against the boys?  Probably not.  
>
> So, even if she pairs her top, she is likely off
> the board.  Or, she can be one of the top 3
> contenders in the Oaks.  Not a tough choice.
>
> Eight Belles is a different story. She has run
> four straight races that if you adjust for her
> being a filly, has her at the \"0\" level.  I still
> say \"bounce\" next time out, whether she runs
> against the fillies or colts, but that is a little
> bit based on my visual analysis of her last race.
> But on raw number power, she would be the most
> consistently fast horse in the Derby.  Big Brown
> is certainly faster, on his best, but Eight Belles
> has 4 figures in a very fast range, something
> which NONE of the colts have.  So, can\'t blame
> them for taking a shot.

[marcus]

jimbo - well proud spell wasn\'t on my original expanded list of long-shots that i threw into the grist in response to your \"derby strategy\" thread  . honestly , i don\'t know where proud spell\'s going to run next and i\'m certainly not advocating proud spell as a play in the derby . ctc\'s saying she runs the oaks next and that makes sense to me .

interesting to note though  that proud spell\'s sheet in the oaks/derby contenders set is as fast or faster than all but seven  of the derby horses ( 8 total incl eight belles )  - and she\'s not off a top .

eight belles is definitely a different story , were those last two numbers actually \"near\" pairs or were they three quarter point bounce efforts , and is that what we get out of her now in terms of a bounce ? ...

i\'m going back and forth on quite a few of these long-shots while keeping in the back of my mind that not all of the faster horses who are off top efforts run in their previous race will bounce in the derby .