More Derby Ins and Outs

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Anak Nakal,

But Zito is moaning some crazy stuff about the drug testing.

richiebee Wrote:
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> Good work, Toppled.
>
> Lets talk TG#s and patterns.
>
> Pattern 1: (beginning with 2YO debut)
> 11/10/7/3/10/6/3/10
>
> Pattern 2: (beginning with 2YO debut)
> 6/6/5/7/8/2.
>
> \"1\" is CCM.
>
> \"2\" is a colt also trained by a former Derby
> winning trainer. \"2\" also won at CD as a 2YO.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Lets assume CJ was not fast on whatever they call that nonsense out there.

He was certainly fast the other day. That was Not an ordinary work. The issue now is, not whether he is fast, its whether he went too fast.


congaree1 Wrote:
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> As ridiculous as it may sound,I\'m am ignoring CJ!!
> He was solid at 2, but not that fast. Infact, he
> is still not that fast and my guess is he will run
> well, but not enough too catch the faster ones. I
> think he is actually getting more attention than
> Big Brown. Maybe CJ will be the favorite. Good
> luck too all.

[RICH]

Should we refer to Hard Spun, on this matter?

[RICH]

You know, with all of this BB stuff ( see bellamy road, curlin,, etc) some of these jocks may be on the lookout for this one, and a little rough riding SHOULD be in order, now if that happens, this horse may come apart at the seams, never been there, done that, possible?

[toppled]

I read somewhere that before that stakes race at CD last year, he was a total mess before the race and had lost the race before it ever began, so I tossed the race out.  I can\'t see him as the slowest in the field, as he has, not once, but twice-ran faster than the highly touted Colonel John-and the 1st time he did it as a 2yo.  Now, if I throw out the Bluegrass, as the Pyromaniacs are doing, I find a horse who in his 2nd start as a 3 yo,ran back to his 2yo top-a very good sign in my opinion.  His two year old top of 3 is faster than the 2yo tops of every other horse in the field with the exception of Pyro.  Now, many of these horses couldn\'t reach their 3yo top until their final prep-3-5 weeks ago.  With the 3 at 2, and the 3 at 3 over two months ago, if CCM is ready, he\'s going to explode that 3 and get his # right up there with the 3yo #s of all but BB.  These horses never topped CCM\'s 3s until the last prep: TOE, Gayego, Monba, CV, Adriano, SA, AN, most of those were big jump ups which questions whether they can come back to those # or bounce.  Additionally, these guys have never reached CCM\'s top: CJ, ZH, RTG, CC, BT and BBJ.  That\'s 6 slower horses & 7 more who were slower than CCM going into their last race.  At 20-1 or better I\'m using him & if he loses, I just hope I\'m on the winner in the DD.  I\'m still keying on Pure Clan in the Oaks even from post 11 as I feel she is best off the pace (she was too close in the Fantasy due to the small field) I\'ll be using ZF, BB & CCM as my major wagers & saving with EB, CJ, TOE, DOC & G.  If I win the Oaks, I can afford to be wrong on CCM-but if I win the Oaks & I\'m right on CCM, the risk will be well exceeded by the reward.  Now it should be fast for the Derby, since the rains will have stopped hours before the race, but if it rains on Friday an interesting stat is the sire of the favorite, Proud Spell is 0/21  on wet tracks-but the crowd will see the good 2nd in last year\'s Breeder\'s Cup & jump all over her even more.  I never want to put good $ on a horse to be the 1st one to get a win for its sire in any category.  Meanwhile, Pure Clan\'s sire is a healthy 21% in 38 wet track starts (BRIS stats).

[Old Mr. Boston]

Big Brown might look awfully good on paper, but I remeber alot of other 3 hit wonders who captivated the minds of Derby cappers....Congaree, Curlin, Indian Charlie and Strodes Creek. None won, but all hit the board...moral of the story, he who ignores history is destined to repeat it.....unless he has the magic potion.

[SoCalMan2]

Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
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> Big Brown might look awfully good on paper, but I
> remeber alot of other 3 hit wonders who captivated
> the minds of Derby cappers....Congaree, Curlin,
> Indian Charlie and Strodes Creek. None won, but
> all hit the board...moral of the story, he who
> ignores history is destined to repeat
> it.....unless he has the magic potion.

I am not so sure I draw the same lesson you do from the same history.  

Congaree and Curlin both ran great races and ran to their form.  They just happen to get beat by horses that had already shown they were better (or jumped up to a better level).  

If Big Brown approximates his prior race the same way that Congaree and Curlin did, who is going to stick with him?  None of this can be looked at in isolation.  Also, Congaree and Curlin had to run their races to have a chance.  Big Brown can bounce and still win.  There are not that many out there who can run negative numbers (which he could bounce and do).  What\'s more, if he pairs up, he is gone.  

So, to use the history lesson, if Big Brown is another Congaree or Curlin, how exactly does he get beat when he pairs up his prior figure?  

The other thing that bothers me (and I do not know the answer to this) is that the only reason people think Big Brown is such a big bounce candidate is because that last figure was too extreme.  How would somebody feel if his three races were 5-3-1?  The \"1\" would not look like such a monstrous figure and people would be thinking that he might even run better.  Why should the -3.5 be viewed as so extreme?  It was extreme at one point, but he is not the first guy to run a number like that (Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, Smarty Jones all ran in that ballpark, right?).  My point is that eventually -3.5 is not going to be such a big deal.  The key is how do we know when we are there?

I hate betting chalk and it does not make me happy to be looking at putting Big Brown at the top of my ticket, however, it looks unavoidable to me.  The key thing that bothers me is that \"Big Brown\" just crying out to be known as \"Big Bounce\"  Ugh, what to do!

I will say that there are some extremely interesting long shots to me.  In fact, there are too many.  Two that appeal to me that very little has been said about are Anak Nakal and Z Humor.  While they are both obviously slow, they do have intriguing patterns to me and good reasons to think they may be the unusual horses that move forward in the Derby.  Zito and Mott are both pretty good trainers and it would not be the first time with either that the perceived weaker half of the uncoupled entry surprised.

[RICH]

The neg 3.5 is a big, big number for a 3yr old, he\'s about 80% to run an off/x race if you buy into the spring 3 yr old study done in the last couple of years, add a wide turn or two, and he can certainly be beat, by a horse who runs slower with a better trip. 5/2 is not acceptable for this most likely scenario.

[Rick B.]

RICH Wrote:
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> The neg 3.5 is a big, big number for a 3yr old,
> he\'s about 80% to run an off/x race if you buy
> into the spring 3 yr old study done in the last
> couple of years, add a wide turn or two, and he
> can certainly be beat, by a horse who runs slower
> with a better trip. 5/2 is not acceptable for this
> most likely scenario.

Why on earth should he get a wide trip? If Kent D. uses the horse correctly, he clears the field to the 1st turn and gets the rail the rest of the way if he wants.
 
Assuming a relatively straight path, the extra distance Big Brown has to cover to get to the first turn by being in the 20-hole instead of the 1-hole is less than 4 feet, so the ground loss is extremely minor.
 
Now, if BB gets a horrendous wide trip around the first turn, Kent D. might want to just jump off the horse somewhere along the backstretch and look for a place to hide...because it will be on him, not Big Brown.

[RICH]

why would he get a wide trip? why not, post 20, speed inside, what\'s he going to do gun it, against all that speed, and all the others trying for position. I see nothing but trouble, if he wins from there with those conditions. He is the king.

[Uncle Buck]

In my esitmation, Big Brown clearly already is king. The quandry is simply can he do it again? Based on Tricky\'s past record with his top horses, I\'m inclined to say yes. I\'m keying BB on top of the horses TGJB suggested in the seminar.

Another thing people seem to forget is that it\'s hard to be wide on BOTH turns in the Derby if you have a quality speed horse. There\'s a good chance BB will be 3w or 4w on the club house turn but he should be in an ideal spot hugging the rail on the far turn if he\'s still galloping which I think he will be.

Would you rather be wide early or late? I clearly say early on the first turn. Many a horse has made a visually impressive bold move on the far turn in the Derby only to end up 8w and flatten out.

[jmetro]

Wide Derby trips are not always a bad thing, just two years ago Barbaro was 3 wide in the firts turn and five to six wide down the backside and second turn.  He only saw the rail late in the race when he drifted in.  Giacomo, and Mike Smith, was at least four wide the entire race in 2005 and he still got the Roses.  

If the track Saturday was like the one last year a wide trip will hurt Big Brown, otherwise it will have little to no outcome on the race.

[Rick B.]

jmetro Wrote:
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> Wide Derby trips are not always a bad thing, just
> two years ago Barbaro was 3 wide in the firts turn
> and five to six wide down the backside and second
> turn.

Yep, forgot about that.
 
What would you rather have, a slightly wide but relatively clean trip, or a ground-saving trip with potential traffic trouble late when all in front of you start puking?

[TGJB]

I could be wrong, but as far as I can recall, there has been nobody that has won the Derby going more than 3w3w on the turns, which is where it matters.

[miff]

Clocker report 5/1: Big Brown impresses
By MIKE WELSCH
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Big Brown buzz grew a little louder after the Kentucky Derby favorite worked three furlongs in 35.33 seconds here Thursday morning. Big Brown was one of two Derby starters to blow out for the race Thursday. Smooth Air covered the same distance in 37.99.

With regular exercise rider Michelle Nevin aboard, Big Brown came out on the track amidst quite a bit of traffic shortly after the renovation break and was clearly full of himself as he made his way down the backstretch before breaking off at the three-furlong pole. Hugging the inner rail and with Nevin offering no prompting, Big Brown posted splits of 11.89 seconds and 23.20 before crossing the finish line to the applause of the many fans attending the traditional Dawn at the Downs breakfast program. Nevin immediately grabbed into Big Brown to keep him from doing too much during his gallop -out.