SC –
I haven\'t taken sides and don\'t think anyone would listen if I did.
On the one hand, I can see the logic of the horsemen\'s position. Purses have historically exceeded 6.5% of handle, and now TrackNet is telling the horsemen they should take less than 4% of handle through ADW\'s, which is the growth sector of the industry and should involve lower costs per wager than having tellers punch tickets and handle cash. I also have no particular affection for Churchill Downs, Inc. (I\'ll spare you the rant), and most of their comments on this matter have struck me as intellectually dishonest, if not technically so. In particular, their claims that increasing the cost of the signal would make twinspires.com unprofitable are just games with numbers, the outcome of which depends on how you allocate costs and how fast you write off start-up costs.
On the other hand, I think the long-term health of the industry (in the face of competition from more popular forms of gambling that are less costly to operate) requires consolidation. The slots gravy train won\'t last forever, and reducing costs will require fewer horses, horsemen, and race tracks chasing a limited supply of takeout dollars. If you reduce the number of tracks and horses by 75%, and assume handicappers will shift their wagering to whatever tracks are left so that total handle is unchanged, then the remaining horsemen could indeed survive on less than 4% of the handle. That seems to be where Churchill Downs is taking us. Here\'s a recent quote from the CEO of Churchill:
\"There are 50,000 thoroughbred races in the U.S. each year,\" Evans said. \"This is a hugely oversupplied market in which online bettors have already shown their willingness to move their wagers to the best available product.\"
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080508/BUSINESS/805080348And indeed, Churchill\'s actions in Florida seem to be having the predicted effect, as owners are shipping their horses out of Florida and stable help is being laid off.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94451.html