TGJB- Hey Byrn figs

[Dudley]

Jerry,

I see where you\'ve noted HB\'s negative number at GP in February being the best 3yo other than BB. Two concerns I\'d like you to address about that figure and what that means for the Preakness; 1) He ran that best off a near 5- month layoff and 2) more relevant to me, is he did it on an off track. He debuted in the slop at Crc and fared well there too.  My concern on him is that he can\'t replicate his best on a dry fast track. Your response? Thanks.

[TGJB]

The fact that HB ran that figure when fresh is why I think he\'ll go forward today, as I explained in ROTW. I wouldn\'t call a \"good\" track an off track, but if it were it would add randomness to his chance of running well. I\'m actually surprised that off tracks have never been discussed in depth here.

[fkach]

Pimlico is very wet today and could easily be wet tomorrow for whatever that is worth.

[Dudley]

\"The fact that HB ran that figure when fresh is why I think he\'ll go forward today, as I explained in ROTW\"

I didn\'t interpret this that way Jerry:

\"HEY BYRN—ran a negative 1 in his 3yo debut, the best Thoro-Graph figure
any Preakness entrant not named Big Brown has ever run. It was also an 8
point new top, and not surprisingly it set him back. It’s actually a positive
sign that he didn’t completely fall apart, since the big effort was also the first of four races in nine weeks. Now he’s had five weeks rest, and there’s a
good chance he’ll move forward, maybe even all the way back to his top.
Which makes him a contender at a big price.\"

So thanks for clarifying.

As for, call them \'other-than-dry & fast\' tracks, that is something I usually evaluate in the pps. I always try to anylyze numbers in that context. I\'ve made some great hits on Turfers that excel on good and soft ground whose current form on firm buries those performances.  Likewise, I\'m inclined to avoid those that show  abberations as such on dissimilar conditions day of race. Case in point with Hey Bryn. If the track is fast at PIM tomorrow, I won\'t use him. You may be right and he\'s ready to move up. My sense is he, at-best, repeats his 3 on a fast track.

[Silver Charm]

Wasn\'t the Chilukki Day and off track???

Things get a little slow after the Triple Crown may we can go there again.

I\'m sure Len\'s Board is also wide open.

[Dudley]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Wasn\'t the Chilukki Day and off track???
 
Are you referring to the day Chilukki broke her maiden at CD? I was there. Though the rains had stopped, that track was wet; no standing water but packed tight.

[Silver Charm]

Yes you are correct. However that race was full of first time maiden two year old starters going four and a half furlongs.

Beyer gave Chilukki a 109 Speed Figure. Faster than he has given Big Brown.

Ragozin gace Chilukki a 6 then gave Charismatic a 5 four days later when he won the Derby.

TG did not assign the race a figure. Instead giving it a box.

Also by the fourth race the rains did move back in pretty steadily, the track was sealed even further create a massive speed bias then the rains stopped before the card ended.

The track remained sealed thereby creating three different track speeds on the same day. No one else on the entire card was given a figure anywhere near what Chilukki was given.

[big18741]

Dudley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jerry,
>
> I see where you\'ve noted HB\'s negative number at
> GP in February being the best 3yo other than BB.
> Two concerns I\'d like you to address about that
> figure and what that means for the Preakness; 1)
> He ran that best off a near 5- month layoff and 2)
> more relevant to me, is he did it on an off track.
> He debuted in the slop at Crc and fared well there
> too.  My concern on him is that he can\'t replicate
> his best on a dry fast track. Your response?
> Thanks.

You might also think about discounting the race since it came in a one turn mile.

[JR]

It\'ll be dry. Winds blowing 15 to 20 tonight. Sunny and windy tomorrow.

[smalltimer]

I think the topic of off-tracks, non-firm turf, etc would be an excellent topic to dive into once the Preakness has passed.
In addition to the off-tracks, it might also be a good time to really take an in-depth look at the differences in the artificial surfaces.  
I maintain there are huge differences in the surfaces and would really encourage a lot of different theories from the forum members.
When the turf comes up soft, yielding or simply non-firm, a great place to start is Pleasant Colony, mares out of Sharpen Up, and a couple sons of Lyphard.
Even in Pimlico\'s undercard today, Pino has double entered Forest Park.  In Race 3 a 6f dirt sprint and Race 8, a 5f turf sprint.  No doubt, Pino will be placing the horse in the surface most beneficial, despite the fact this 7 year old has no career turf starts.  In the dirt sprint, he\'s 4/1, in the turf sprint he\'s 20/1.

[smalltimer]

Since Pino scratched the horse in both spots, makes you wonder what he might have been thinking.

[basket777]

just got home

Hey byrn on every ticket

Have pick 4 working

also have hime strong with bb and the other 3 mentioned.  if he doesn\'t win let him come in top 4  big spread with him

as we know said this weeks ago