TGJB,
I agree that it\'s difficult to keep a horse at his peak for three tough races. However, I don\'t think it\'s very wise to dismiss legitimate excuses for specific horses that won\'t be applicable in this case when you are trying to determine what the probabilities are this time.
I guess horses players can debate which excuses were legitimate and which were nonsense suggested by people that don\'t know what they are talking about or nonsense promoted by the connections trying to save the reputation of the horse.
However, to me, some of the horses that lost had little or no edge over several horses going in. They were no better than 2-1 or 3-1 to win. One or two may not have even deserved to the be favorite despite winning the first two.
On the flip side, IMO, Smarty\'s trip was more like a mugging. I think he was clearly best despite the loss. He ran a huge race. That kind of thing is way less likely to happen to BB than Smarty because of running style and jockey.
Holding BB together (especially considering the lost training) is a legitimate incremental risk, but on sheer ability, he has a much bigger edge and fewer question marks related to running style than most of the other recent horses that tried and failed. Weighing it all is the tough part.
