Belmont 8th Criminal Power

[JR]

Just curious about the reasoning behind using Criminal Power instead some others in that same race, namely Gold Pageantry. His turf numbers were the slowest of the group. Was it based on the assumption that his good poly numbers would translate to the turf? What was negative about Gold Pageantry in that race? Fastest numbers on the grass. Second start of the layoff.

[TGJB]

Alan\'s not around, but he talked me into betting that one myself. Yeah, the idea was the poly figures were good enough here, and the price. Ran pretty well at 45-1.

[JR]

I agree he ran well and I liked him off of his poly numbers. But why no mention of Gold Pageantry? I thought his first start out -10 sprinting was a good setup for a return to his -8 top from last year. That would have seemed enough to get the job done here although he apparently didn\'t run back to that number. Any clues?

[TGAB]

Let me see if I can recall my thinking here. GP was 3rd choice at 4-1 ML. Certainly an 8 could possibly be good to win but Tesher was winless 2nd off the layoff in 30 tries. That\'s weak. Even another 8 is no guarantee and I\'m getting a underlay odds for a trainer not good in this spot. If he beats me, he beats me but this can\'t be a good bet. Especially since GP is 5 and it took work for him to get down to this top. In other words he\'d probably need a few races to get in top  shape (easy to say now) and he wasn\'t going to get any better than he already was. Younger horses, including Writingonthewall the legit favorite but also vulnerable trying turf for the 1st time, are much more eligible to jump up and run new tops. Criminal Power showed okay turf figures, not particularly good, but explainable in the context of his line, and his damsire Compliance is a son of Northern Dancer. His siblings show some fast turf tops and CP himself, showed fast figures, the fastest in here, on polytrack, which usually translates well to turf. Inside, 3rd off the layoff, and a big price--why not? As a 4yo, he was eligible to perhaps run back to his top. He didn\'t but he ran okay and I\'d keep an eye on him at least the next time around.