Your competition at the windows revealed, be afraid, be very afraid

[Boscar Obarra]

http://current.com/items/88986089_life_at_the_track

[jbelfior]

Boscar:


I\'m thinking that most of the guys in this clip deplete a good percentage of their bankroll at the hot dog stand.


Actually, BO, the scary part is why aren\'t we crushing this game when these people represent 95% of our competition?



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

>Actually, BO, the scary part is why aren\'t we crushing this game when these people represent 95% of our competition? <

That puzzled me years ago also, but the answer is quite obvious.

The 5% bets a lot more money per person and much of it is directed at perceived overlays. That more or less corrects many of the errors of the unsophisticated masses and makes for a fairly efficient market.

[miff]

Joe B,

The two factors that are almost impossible to overcome in spite of all the dead money in the pool:

1.Takeout

2.The app 10% random/inconsistent type chaotic results.


Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

I think you guys overlook a major component of the real competition.

  Insiders who KNOW things.

  I don\'t mean speed figures either.

  That\'s half your competition at least, and those that buy information from them.

  The only reason you don\'t see more of the effect is it doesn\'t pay to take down too much of the pool. So even if you know who the winner is, you let it pay 5-1 , since it was 8 or 9-1 before you got down. Ya gots to leave something on the table, so the table doesn\'t collapse.
 
  No need to be greedy and scare the women and children to boot.

[fkach]

I think you are right.

Inside money is most apparent in races with a lot of first time starters and layoffs, but some level of inside information makes it into the pools. That\'s part of the 5% I was talking about.