Oak Tree and Kee

[Josephus]

Considering the fractions, final times, and the way speed has been holding (for example last Sat. at Kee. ) does anyone still think the race shapes at the BC are going to vastly different than if the races were run on dirt?

[shanahan]

no, I really have no oddities in my handicapping whether syn or dirt.  No surprises for me lately...I suck at both surfaces equally

[jimbo66]

Josephus,

A resounding YES.  \"Speed holding up\" is not the way you should measure the skew of synthetic tracks.  The right way would be to measure how quality dirt horses, with established figure levels, run on those tracks.  A classic example would be Unbridled Belle.  She ran like a mule at Keenland after competing against and often beating, the best dirt distaffers in the country.  Anybody think Carriage Trail could beat Unbridled Belle on dirt at Belmont, Saratoga or any other dirt track?  Not.  Did you watch how bad Mini Bhavan ran at Keenland.  An extremely quick and dynamic horse at Saratoga.  Was completely impotent at Keenland.  

You can bet speed on the Pro-Ride surface (and Keenland), but only speed with synthetic established form.

[miff]

Joe/Jim,


Santa Anita\'s new pro ride has NOT been even, so far.Route wires are few if any, last time I checked it was like 2 for 15.Sprints somewhat better but the overall profile is still negative early speed generally.

The very bad heat may have something to do with it and they are still fooling with the surface. By the BC,the surface may be very different and the days preceding that Friday may be the best barometer.


Would love to be a bookmaker for this BC instead of a gambler. No one has a clue how many of the horses will handle that surface.


Mike

[mlnolan00]

I\'m not sure you can blame the performances by both those animals on the surface.  Mani Bhavin was way over her head when it came to the distance, and Dream Empress was just as fast as MB on figures.
Barry can probably shed some more light on Unbridled Belle\'s performance, but the mare may just be sour on racing.  She did not look happy in the paddock (nervous), while Carriage Trail looked Very Good, plus UB was way on the outside of the starting gate.

I won quite a bit of $$ at Keeneland over the weekend, and many of the races were not that hard to decipher.  So I don\'t think one can solely say a horse ran poorly due to the surface.

[miff]

I think the fact that a \"pure\" turf horse like Carriage Trail whistles on that surface speaks volumes about synth racing. They should have just come up with an all weather turf course, it\'s kinda what they did anyway.


Mike

[Barry Irwin]

Unbridled Belle was on the top of her game. She was not nervous. She was ready to roll. She hated the stuff. Very discouraging this aspect of racing dirt horses on the Polytrack.

[Barry Irwin]

Point is well tooken.

By the way, Tooken Down was my favorite horse name of all time.