Man, if one wants to use 2 year old tops as an important angle

[HP]

I think \"slow 2yo top\" is relative, right?  It\'s a faster 2yo top than lots of Derby winners have run (even recent ones with your whole number scale being too fast as various post-ers have pointed out (this is a joke!)).  

Otherwise your points are okay.  Having watched the Wood I\'m not as bothered by the backward move there.  Did you see that race?  (this is another joke).  

I\'m just tired of hunting for value in this race, throwing out the fastest horse for some reason, and having him come in on top of $1,500 tris...

[number5858]

Yeah, Bruno doesn\'t land in Louisville until Apr 25th. He is friends with the connections of IWR. I do know that he thinks very highly of the horse. My point in including the quote from Bruno wasn\'t to say that anyone else was wrong, but to point out that the track was wet, and I don\'t know if I would worry about not getting a bullet on that track under those conditions. If I were the trainer, I think maybe I would take it a little easy and wait for another day.

On the other hand, a quarter crack is nearly an instant toss for me because you just never know when they are going to let go again even if QR isn\'t running in bar shoes. If QR is in bar shoes, then he is a toss. Empire Maker\'s Derby showed us that everything has to be just right. Quarter cracks and bar shoes won\'t cut it. I also have to wonder why did GG wait a day after POTN\'s workout before announcing he was going that way instead of DK? What are we missing there?

I know I can\'t toss IWR. He has a chance. What I don\'t know yet is what I am going to do if it rains and the track comes up sloppy. I don\'t know much about translating synthetic form to slop.

[TGJB]

Empire maker lost the Derby on ground loss, he got the best figure. I think BB had a few hoof problems last year too, as I remember.

What you are missing is the possibility that, as someone here suggested, Zayat gave GG a bonus to ride POTN, making it a no-lose situation.

Actual news-- they will be freezing blood from the Derby horses and other graded stakes. Don\'t know if it\'s all or how many yet.

[Dudley]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> The negatives
> with IWR are the slow 2yo top (he ran on Cushion
> twice as a 2yo, which is basically dirt) and huge
> development, the too-fast-too-soon issue, the
> backward move going into the Derby (very few
> winners came in that way),

Jerry,

Perhaps you covered this previously as well, so pardon my ignorance if that is the case. But are you calling IWR\'s WOOD a backward move?  I haven\'t seen your numbers, but given the trip from gate to stretch, how can one even relate that figure? Thanks.

[flushedstraight]

number5858 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> On the other hand, a quarter crack is nearly an
> instant toss for me because you just never know
> when they are going to let go again even if QR
> isn\'t running in bar shoes. If QR is in bar shoes,
> then he is a toss. Empire Maker\'s Derby showed us
> that everything has to be just right. Quarter
> cracks and bar shoes won\'t cut it.


fyi, in the Derby Empire Maker ran 1/4 point off his top and the best fig in the field by a point.

[number5858]

I stand corrected then. I don\'t think I was using TG back then, so my observation was basically that Empire Maker lost a little bit of training due to his foot problem, and I remember feeling that it made the difference in losing the race. In any case, I am really looking forward to the Derby seminar. I have learned more in the last two years using TG, then all my previous years combined. I still feel like a beginner, but I feel like I am learning all the time.