As posted in my other thread, this is the return of Lemon CHiffon, a horse that a few of us bet on Derby day. (also given out in the TG analysis, I believe).
Very tough race on Saturday. I will go through the horses with a few comments. Welcome feedback of course.
Tuscan Evening - Has run the \"5\" three straight times. Gets 3 weeks into this, which may not be enough to make me think she can run a new top, but at 117 pounds, with a very very likely 1w/1w trip as the controlling speed, she will be very competitive. A contender.
Bel Air Sizzle - Fast enough to win at her best, But the last three times she has gotten down to the 4 or 5 level, she has bounced off of it. Gets rest, but with the history of bouncing, plus a running style that usually loses ground, a toss for me.
Toque de Queda - Had a rough trip last time, and could have run faster with a clean run. Does get 6 lbs from some of the fast ones, but really only has 1 race that makes her a winner here and since she will take money, she will be an underlay. Also, Frankel horses usually fire first off the layoff and don\'t necessarily improve during the campaign.
Diamond Diva - Is a fast filly but the 6 lbs she spots the field just makes her \"one of the ones\". I project her for a 2w/2w trip as the secondary speed, lapped on the rail horse. I also think this filly runs her best at 1 mile and the extra 1/8th may be beyond her best. The combination of the extra 6 lbs, the 2w/2w trip, the short price and the extra 1/8th of a mile, make me mostly negative on this horse, but I will protect my key horse underneath her.
Modification - Fast on synthetics. Ran poorly on turf in her lone start on the surface, albeit on turf with give in it. This is a salty bunch of turf horses for a non-turf horse to be trying. Pass.
Visit - Tough read for me. The positives are that her top of 3, getting 6 lbs is very competitive and the fact that the top was earned over this course makes her even stronger. However, none of the three races this year make her a contender. However, one was synthetic and she had trouble in another. If she finally goes off at a price, which may be possible with Blanc now riding instead of Gomez, she is usable, but not a key for me.
Magical Fantasy - Ran well last time, but gets punished for it by having to carry 123. She hasn\'t run quite as well at Hollywood as she has elsewhere and figures to lose some ground with the outside post. However, as a 4 year old, she has more upside than some of the older ones in here. I would let the price decide it for me, but the most I would use her would be boxed with my key.
Ainamaa - Slow with these plus won\'t get the easy front-running position she got in her last two races. Toss.
Foxy Sox - Another that can run around a \"4\" and gets 4 lbs from the fast ones. Will be stuck outside and lose ground. As a 6 year old, not likely to run a new top. However, the 4 with a trip makes her a contender in a race with lots of contenders.
Black Mamba - Her last race was very good, her best yet. However, at 123 lbs, that is really the only race she has run that can win here and with post 10, she will likely be losing ground. Hard to play her to pair up the big number, and she will likely be short on the odds board. Defensive use only.
Lemon Chiffon - Before her last a very consistent horse. And the race last time she drew the heavy rail. I think the 1 1/8 fits her like a glove and in at 117 lbs, Mike Smith just needs to get her over to the rail heading into the first turn for her to have a very good shot here at overlaid odds.
Conclusion - Hard to say who goes off at what odds without even a Morning Line to look at, but I expect Lemon Chiffon to go off at 8-1 or so. In that range she can be a square win bet and a key in the late pick-4 for me. There are so many horses that can run in the same range it is tough to say which ones to use in exotics without seeing odds, but I am likely to use Tuscan Evening and Toque de Qada heavier in exotics with Lemon Chiffon and sprinkle in Visit and Foxysox, assuming they are decent prices.
Good luck
