After miserable performances on Belmont day and the week before, I am gunshy about posting any race comments on here. As a matter of fact, my trainer said the last performance was so bad, he wanted an MRI on me and recommended I be \"freshened up\" and pointed for my 43 year old season......
But, there are a couple races this weekend that look interesting, so two weeks is all the break I can take.
In the NY Stakes at Belmont, I am assuming the turf is soft/yielding and as such I Lost My Choo is likely not to run (or if he does run, he won\'t be as good). Criticism spots weight to the field and isn\'t that fast. He is a clear bet against. The obvious play is Dynaforce, as he has several figures that win here, got a race under his belt last time and should be fitter today. Also, as his form clearly shows, he likes the soft turf. The problem I have with the horse is that all this is fairly obvious and I think the horse goes off favored. I am going to key somebody else. In the Sheepshead Bay race, I thought that Criticism was vulnerable because there was other speed in the race and I didn\'t think he would \"trip out\" as easily as he did. Kiaran entered both Colina Verde and Backseat Rhythm in that race and Colina Verde was stretching out after showing speed in shorter races. Well, Colina missed the break and was far back early off the slow pace. The horse ran well though, closing wide, running the same figure that Criticism did. Kiaran re-enters the same two horses and unless he breaks bad again, I would expect Colina Verde on or near the lead, possibly with a 1w/1w trip. He won a Grade 1 on heavy turf in Brazil and at 10-1 ML, he is my key. I will also likely bet a four horse triple box, leaving out Criticism, using Colina Verde, Dynaforce, Backseat Rhythm and Dress Rehearsal.
The Colonial Turf Cup is interesting in that several of the favored horses look like bet againsts to me. Not sure why Take the Points should be one of the favorites here. Breeding doesn\'t scream turf to me. Horse ran OK early this year on dirt and synthetics. 1st time turf in a grade 2? No thanks. Battle of Hastings is Ok, as his 6\'s are competitive. But he isn\'t the fastest horse, may not want the longer distance and will be pretty short. My key for the race is Final Count. The horse got down to a 5 last time out, has tactical speed, and ran the good number on a turf course with give in it. I think the 12-1 ML is unlikely to hold up, but at even 6-1, I like him. The interesting longshot to use with him is Al Khali. Ran 5\'s and 6\'s in his last couple on dirt. Medaglia D\'Oro\'s are as fast on turf as they are on dirt. Had a bullet workout on the turf, now gets Kent Desormeaux traveling into Colonial to ride a 20-1 longshot. I think the horse is live and gets the rail and has enough early speed to get a nice trip. Very easy to use, especially with my top horse.
Good luck
Jim
