Rachel vs Zenyatta Eminent

[Michael D.]

Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her loss, before she even gets beat?

Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10 weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called the best ever.

Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA looked vulnerable last year was when she ran hard early against the boys. If they come up with a small field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate the early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no, that will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses is over.

[bobphilo]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her
> loss, before she even gets beat?
>
> Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between
> 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that
> kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10
> weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called the
> best ever.
>
> Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA looked
> vulnerable last year was when she ran hard early
> against the boys. If they come up with a small
> field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate the
> early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no, that
> will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses is
> over.

How strange to see someone discounting a horse\'s form cycle on this forum, and stranger still to expect an owner to do the same in facing his horse\'s greatest
rival.      

I haven\'t seen anyone declare himself a Rachel or Zenyatta fan on this thread, though I have been speculating whether Jackson will change all his plans and concede the condition advantage to his rival in such a crucial match-up. I have not speculated on who would win such a race - another topic for another thread altogether - but whether this race will even occur at this particular date.

Bob

[miff]

Guys,

Don\'t believe Assmussen/Jackson will put Rachel on the track vs Z in less than top shape.On conditioning, not all horses need one before putting forward their best effort.Don\'t know about Rachel but many are able to fire their best shot first out.Not saying,you would not want a great horse or any horse to come out first time running neg-3.

When and if this race happens and if both are at their tops,I think many will be a bit surprised at the outcome. Z needs to get faster or get \"help\" to beat the Rachel that ran last year,ALL THINGS EQUAL!Again, not biased but how do Z fans think she will make out in a two horse race?

Mike

[fasteddie]

If this happens,fine, but if we end up with Bayakoa/Go for Wand, this already dying sport may never recover...

[Niall]

Would Rachel be the first mare to not develop from 3 to 4 Or even pair up? I think not. What do the sire #\'s indicate or is the sample quite small ?

[Flighted Iron]

A match in late spring,A re-match mid-late summer,and hopefully the rubber
comes at the BC Classic.I would think it prudent for both parties to allow
these gals to get 1 tuner under their belts before jumping into the frying pan.
Jackson and Co. couldn\'t have anticipated Z staying in the game and their long range plan to win the BC Classic(and HOTY again)probably won\'t be turned upside
down.Ideally both of them getting it on Derby day,then possibly the Whitney with
the added intrigue of the males and then culminating in the BC Classic.The excitement would be near incalculable to think of these two meeting at the Classic
with 1 victory each not to mention throw in the Euros et al.Imagine the possibilty
of having the Derby winner,BC Classic defending champ,The top older males from
any continent,and oh yeah The best horse on the Planet getting it on?Pardon my foolish outburst,but I think my nipples just got hard.

mjs

[Michael D.]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Is Rachel fan is already making excuses for her
> > loss, before she even gets beat?
> >
> > Listen folks, Stevie boy has somewhere between
> > 18-23 medication violations. If a guy with that
> > kind of needle can\'t get a horse ready in 10
> > weeks, that horse doesn\'t deserve to be called
> the
> > best ever.
> >
> > Rachel fan, settle down. The only time RA
> looked
> > vulnerable last year was when she ran hard
> early
> > against the boys. If they come up with a small
> > field of f&m at OP, RA might very well dictate
> the
> > early stages and hold off Zenyatta. And no,
> that
> > will not give Z an excuse. The time for excuses
> is
> > over.
>
> How strange to see someone discounting a horse\'s
> form cycle on this forum, and stranger still to
> expect an owner to do the same in facing his
> horse\'s greatest
> rival.      




RA will have been in training for nearly 2.5 months. If one wants to argue that she can\'t be in good form by the OP race, fine, but that\'s a strike against her ability (her greatness if you will). Rachel can\'t run in a prep on March 3, nearly two months after they started the discussions, then run fast a month later? Come on folks, this wasn\'t a 3 week notice and a race in January. It\'s two and a half months.

If I were to make a form cycle excuse, and I\'m not, I would argue that Rachel has a better shot of exploding in early April of her 4 yr old season after nearly two and a half months of training than Zenyatta does at age 6.

If they think there\'s a health risk, by all means, keep Rachel in the barn. If not, she needs to run.



>I haven\'t seen anyone declare himself a Rachel or
> Zenyatta fan on this thread, though I have been
> speculating whether Jackson will change all his
> plans and concede the condition advantage to his
> rival in such a crucial match-up. I have not
> speculated on who would win such a race - another
> topic for another thread altogether - but whether
> this race will even occur at this particular
> date.
>
> Bob

[bobphilo]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bobphilo Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Michael D. Wrote:
>>>
>
> RA will have been in training for nearly 2.5
> months. If one wants to argue that she can\'t be in
> good form by the OP race, fine, but that\'s a
> strike against her ability (her greatness if you
> will). Rachel can\'t run in a prep on March 3,
> nearly two months after they started the
> discussions, then run fast a month later? Come on
> folks, this wasn\'t a 3 week notice and a race in
> January. It\'s two and a half months.
>
> If I were to make a form cycle excuse, and I\'m
> not, I would argue that Rachel has a better shot
> of exploding in early April of her 4 yr old season
> after nearly two and a half months of training
> than Zenyatta does at age 6.
>
> If they think there\'s a health risk, by all means,
> keep Rachel in the barn. If not, she needs to run.

Once again, the purpose of my post was not to predict whether RA can beat Z on 60 days training, though I doubt she would be in her top form. I was talking about whether Jackson would want to face Z this early in her form cycle given his plans for her and whether we should seriously expect to see them meet in the Apple Blossom.
 
You are right when you say that she was able to reach top form by early Spring last year, but Jackson has specifically stated that he does NOT want her to peak that early this year but to peak by BC time. He also reiterated that while he was interested in Oaklawn\'s offer, he would only run if she was in top form and it did not conflict with her scheduled plans. Yes, Rachel does need to run, but why face her toughest rival first or second crack out of the box when the plan was to have her peak much later for the Breeder\'s Cup?


I can understand all the excitement of the 2 meeting early at Oaklawn, but given the timing and Jackson\'s plans this may turn out to be much ado about something that will not happen - at least not in April. Jackson may agree to run if Moss takes him up on the offer he made last year and make this part of a 3 race series with 1 or 2 rubber matches. Otherwise, I\'m not getting worked up over expecting to see the 2 great fillies/mares meet this early. I think Flighted Iron\'s post suggests a much more likely, and preferable scenario.

Bob

[rayj54]

Anybody got any thoughts on the Donn?

[nyc1347]

Sample size is way too small.. How much more can she develop anyway?  Ghostzapper is the fastest horse of all time going two turns at negative 6.5\'s!  Development this year = more consistent top numbers (neg 3-4s)!

[Flighted Iron]

Thanks Bob.Minus the anatomy part naturally.


mjs

[Leamas57]

About the Donn and since you asked, I still think QR is going to have a great year and will win this race. I like DOM to run well here. He\'s young and could move up one more notch. MM is interesting, too. I wil probably play QR with those two for starters. I should watch replay, but don\'t thing QR was asked for all of it in last...

Leamas

[Leamas57]

Dr. Bill made a nice post in a different thread. I like QR to win and DOM and MM to fill in the exacta. If QR didn\'t use too much winning the last (and I don\'t think he did), I think he wins by a few lengths and continues a big 4-yr-old campaign.

Leamas