ROTW

[kev]

I just cant see anyone beating RED BULLET, i know hes 6-5 might be a good race to pass or loaded up on him. Anyways its always good to see top horses run.

[derby1592]

Kevin,

Red Bullet is the horse to beat but I like Mongoose. I think the pace will be much slower than the last time the two hooked up, which should favor Mongoose. I also think Hal\'s Hope has a shot to hang on for second.

Good luck.

Chris

[MO]

The last 5 times Hal\'s Hope ran at GP he ran a 2. Clearly his favorite track. Lone speed from the rail getting a couple of pounds from the tough horses, I think he wires this field at 3-1 and improves to a 1.
American  Halo - big efforts take their toll on this horse. He\'s done for a while.

Mongoose - actually liked his entrymate to win the Donn. Don\'t like the way he finished and wonder if 10 furlongs is too far. Has bounced off a zero in the past, think he\'ll bounce to a 2 today. Short price.

Sir Bear - last has me a little worried that he isn\'t done yet when he should be. Will try to beat the only proven horse at 10 furlongs.

Red Bullet - no secret, I hate this horse.  Bet against in the Donn and was fortunate that Mongoose picked up the pieces. Enters this race as the fastest horse, but could be floated wide on 1st turn in a paceless race.
At 6-5, I\'ll try to beat him again.

[fastspeed]

Mark,

it\'s been 48 hours and nobody has congratulated you, so let me do it - shame on you for getting the price wrong... just shows exactly how loud you can laugh when the next guy comes along telling you that pace does not matter.  kudos to the TG analysis making it crystal clear about how HH would compare with ground saved.  so why did I back Mongoose ?

[MO]

Thank you very much. I had a similar reaction while in the press box at Del Mar the day I bet Dare And Go to beat Cigar. It was like a funeral home and I felt like an outcast, so I didn\'t want to gloat on this one unless prompted, so (LOL) here I go:
If a handicapper can\'t be bold enough to take a stand on a particular horse (either you love the horse or hate it), then that handicapper will never make a big score.
I have never liked Hals Hope until Saturday and only because of the conditions stated. Next start will be away from GP and he\'ll be off the board. I have alaways hated Red Bullet, and see no reason not to continue doing so. By the way, my saver was a straight $20 exacta with Mongoose over HH. Mongoose really did look great in the post parade and if I\'d bet him to win, I\'d have been unrewarded for a great performance.
Thanks again. Tomorrow\'s another day.
Mark

[Jim]

Really? I thought TG analysis said Hal\'s Hope would finish no better than 4th?

Interesting....

[Jim]

Nice call Mark....

I think one common mistake a lot of numbers players make is to live and die by them.

Handicapping is becoming more and more of a value play - numbers are simply one of the best tools for the process.

[kev]

They did, and i said i liked Red B.  oh well i didnt bet therace anyways. I\'ve got Derby Fever now.

[fastspeed]

Jim,

Actually, you\'re right (and that was an honest mistake on my part). As someone who liked mongoose, what had stuck in my mind was how closely HH matched him figure-wise with potential ground saved.

You mentioned \"value\" in your other post - I would guess most people use that concept.  The issue is being a good enough handicapper (whatever tools you\'re using) to make that value call.  Mark obviously thought HH at 3/1 did it - I would have crossed him out at that price without thinking twice(10f did not convince me). Ultimately it boils down to handicapping once again.  But I agree with your figures comment (and dying with them)- when I first started using speed figures I instantly became a much worse handicapper - they were new and I was giving far too much importance to them.  It takes time to learn to go back to basics and blend them (as an important piece) into the whole picture.

Jim wrote:
>
> Really? I thought TG analysis said Hal\'s Hope would finish no
> better than 4th?
>
> Interesting....

[sabowen]

is this the former \"jimmy from CA\", last time responded as \"jimmy the bezel\" (after moving to las vegas)?  your commentary sounds like him.  i don\'t know if you\'ld recall the great tip on the travers and breeders cup classic, but if you are the same guy, would appreciate your input on this wide open derby. i recall a \"conversation\" we had about the viability of high profile handicappers and your assetment of their ability- totally agree!! unfortunatly, the horses i like are being touted by these same people.  i must need help! please respond.